Despite being geographically very distant from each other, South Korea and Germany are, in reality, more similar economically speaking than everyone thinks. Both countries appear “very safe” considering the very low public debt-to-GDP ratio they both showcase: 46% for South Korea and 62% for Germany. What if we add private…
Category:Macro
HOW A FIAT CURRENCY SYSTEM DIES OF A THOUSAND CUTS
The result of the US elections should have rung warning bells everywhere in the world, but apparently, it didn’t. Europe, Canada, Japan, South Korea – the list of economies that persist in feeding asset bubbles is long. The US is still part of it, considering the market is forcing (sorry,…
IS THE GREAT AGE FOR FINANCIAL CRIME COMING TO AN END?
The past 4 years of the US Biden administration have been disastrous, to say the least, but that isn’t the whole story. In many articles, I did my best to highlight how financial criminal activity was running wild and in plain sight, with authorities turning a blind eye to it….
MARKETS ARE QUIET – TOO QUIET
This is supposed to be a “quiet” week ahead of US Thanksgiving that ushers in the last month of the year when no money manager is willing to spoil their performance and put their year-end bonus in danger by trying to make changes in asset allocation. The VIX term structure…
WHY A HEALTHY ECONOMY IS BAD FOR BANKS AND SHADOW BANKS BUSINESSES
Imagine a world where people only spend what they earn or where companies borrow to build new factories and use the additional revenues generated to repay the debt. Imagine a world where you have to plan and save enough money in advance to make an expensive purchase or where governments…
BRACE FOR IMPACT: WHY MARKETS MAY FACE A VOLATILITY STORM AFTER THE 2024 US ELECTION
Finally, here we are with only one day left until the end of the most tragicomic US Presidential campaign ever. So far, investors do not seem too concerned about it, considering the shape of the VIX curve. Yes, some have put some hedging in place, but as you can see,…
MARKET EUPHORIA VS. ECONOMIC REALITY: GLOBAL STOCKS SOAR AS CRACKS DEEPEN BENEATH
To be completely honest, when I saw what happened today in the first minutes of trading in the Japanese stock market, my jaw dropped to the floor. I could not believe my eyes, literally. The outcome of Japan’s elections has been quite bad, with the government in charge effectively now…
CRE CRISIS: HIDDEN LOSSES AND QUESTIONABLE OPTIMISM IN DEUTSCHE BANK’S Q3-24 REPORT
How is it possible that Deutsche Bank’s provisions for credit losses related to Commercial Real Estate (CRE) loans DECREASED by 34% compared to Q2-24? No, I am not joking; it is right there hidden in the fine print of the bank’s Q3-24 report as you can see below. Furthermore, “The…
THE FED’S HIDDEN QE: HOW BANKS ARE PROPPING UP ASSET PRICES AT THE COST OF FUTURE INFLATION
A few days ago in “EXPOSING THE ILLUSION: HOW MODERN ECONOMICS FUELS WEALTH INEQUALITY AND ZOMBIE MARKETS,” I discussed how current economic theories, often used to guide market decisions, are being contradicted by the actual results they produce. Right now, many are puzzled by how the USD, US yields, and…
HOW THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION SET UP MINE FIELDS ALL OVER THE US ECONOMY TO UNDERMINE THE FUTURE GOVERNMENT IN CASE THEY LOSE ELECTIONS
First of all, for those not familiar with it, let me quickly describe what is a minefield. Literally speaking a minefield is an area planted with explosive devices designed to deter or damage enemy forces, and it is primarily used as a defensive measure to control movement and protect strategic…