If you think that right now, with all that’s happening in markets, there are no ongoing discussions behind closed doors of the US administration offices as to whether or not to publicly support the (reckless) AI hyperscalers, then I suggest it’s time to stop living under a rock and see…
Category:Macro
DON’T WORRY, IT’S NOT TOO LATE TO RESCUE THE STOCK BUBBLE
There is one rule that is very powerful and tends to work very well in all situations where it’s suitable to use it: “follow the money”. In our case, this rule applies to the amounts of money central banks handed to traders who then fueled the stock market bubble to…
PRIVATE CREDIT: PEOPLE CAN SMELL THE SMOKE, BUT CANNOT SPOT THE FIRE YET
Alright, let’s dive into something that’s been making big headlines lately: private credit. Think of it as loans handed out by folks who aren’t your typical bank—private equity firms, hedge funds, or specialized finance companies stepping in to lend to businesses, real estate projects, or individuals who might not qualify…
WILL SANAE TAKAICHI LAST LONGER THAN A HEAD OF LETTUCE?
The surprise victory of Sanae Takaichi as the new leader of the Japan LDP, which will allow her to become the next Prime Minister of Japan, has been welcomed by stock traders with such a loud cheer of joy that overheated Japan stocks marked one of the biggest daily jumps…
NO ONE WILL CARE ABOUT A US SHUTDOWN, UNLESS IT SPARKS A BANK RUN
The United States is teetering on the edge of its 22nd federal government shutdown since 1976. While markets are dismissive—assuming, as in the past, that “nothing is going to happen”—this is more than just domestic political theater. If not resolved quickly, this shutdown could become a severe stress test for…
THE GLOBAL DEBT CRISIS: WHY GOLD KEEPS SHINING WHILE DEBT AND CURRENCIES CRASH
Everyone is now watching long-term government bond yields going through the roof, from Japan to the UK, from France to the US. A few months ago, Wall Street’s analysts’ expectations, along with those of many other “experts” (that I am not sure how they can be defined as such, considering…
WHY, INSTEAD OF FIXING US PROBLEMS, FED RATE CUTS WILL WORSEN THEM
Exactly one year ago, a parade of “experts” was making the rounds on various popular TV networks advocating for a 75 basis point emergency FED rate cut to troubleshoot the crisis in the global JPY carry trade scheme. At that time, traders in the futures market priced a 60% probability…
PLAYING WITH FIRE: TRUMP DANGEROUS PUSH FOR LOWER INTEREST RATES
There is no day now when we do not hear from either Lutnick, Bessent, or Trump himself a verbal broadside towards the Federal Reserve, where, let’s not forget, Donald Trump himself nominated the chairman. Why so much beef against Jerome “Burns” Powell? According to them, the FED should be cutting…
HOW TURKEY ENGINEERED ITS OWN ECONOMIC COLLAPSE AND WHY JAPAN AND UK ARE FOLLOWING ON THE SAME FOOTSTEPS
The Turkish Lesson Turkey’s economic collapse didn’t happen by accident—it was the result of deliberate policy choices that ignored economic fundamentals in favor of political doctrine. For years, President Erdoğan pursued a radical economic experiment that became known as “Erdoganomics”. This strategy was built on the belief that high interest…
LIQUIDITY CRACKS WIDEN IN THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL HOUSE OF CARDS
Almost 10 months ago, I wrote the article “MOUNTING SIGNS OF LIQUIDITY PROBLEMS AMONG LARGE US AND UK BANKS” to highlight several elements pointing toward a buildup of liquidity problems in the banking sector. Three elements were particularly noteworthy at the time: Last week, something very interesting happened again: banks…