In about 24 hours, the “Bank Term Funding Programme”, the infamous #BTFP, will be history. There should not have been any surprise about this if it wasn’t for the fact the banking situation today is much worse than it was one year ago when the #BTFP was launched. How dire…
Category:Macro
DEAR ALL, IT WILL ALL END LIKE IN THE MOVIE “INDEPENDENCE DAY”
Yesterday, I watched the opening of #US #stocks trading in literal disbelief as investors stampeded into $NYCB, sending the stock up 15% at some point. The scene reminded me of the movie “Independence Day”, one of my favorites, when you see people dancing on top of buildings right below the…
WHAT CAN SAVE #STOCKS FROM A HISTORICAL IMPLOSION ONCE AGAIN?
It’s no mystery anymore. What matters to low-popularity politicians in charge of government and seeking reelection is a #bullish #stockmarket until after the election date. From #Japan to the #US, from the #UK to #Germany, what do all of them have in common? The government in charge is dealing with…
JAPAN END GAME – A DEEPLY DEVALUED $JPY AND A WORTHLESS #NIKKEI
The #Nikkei just broke 40,000 and yet no one in #Japan is celebrating, literally speaking. Why? The purchasing power of $JPY literally fell through the floor in the past 30 years as a result of endless (and reckless) nonstop money printing. As I wrote almost 5 months ago on X:…
HOW CAN THE #FED BAILOUT BANKS WHEN THIS TIME IT NEEDS A BAILOUT ITSELF TO BEGIN WITH?
Even if blessed with superpowers, in particular, the one of printing infinite money, the Federal Reserve is ultimately a “Bank” and like every superhero has a weak spot like Kryptonite for Superman. Being a “Bank”, hence required to remain solvent, is paradoxically the #FED’s weakness. Let me explain: 1 –…
“WE HAVE NO ALTERNATIVE BUT TO RIDE STOCKS UNTIL THEY RUN”
Yesterday, I spent the evening with a good old friend, now a senior manager in a big financial firm, whom I will label as “Manager X” going forward. I believe some parts of our conversation will be interesting to everyone, my summary below 🙏🏻 1 – Why is there no…
THE PILE OF LIES USED TO RAISE THIS #STOCKS BULL MARKET UP TO THE SKY IS NOT WITHSTANDING GRAVITY ANYMORE
From $NVDA to Janet Yellen, from $AAPL to Jerome Powell, from $SMCI to Gary Gensler, from Joe Biden to the #BLS, from Rishi Sunak to $HSBC, from Christine Lagarde to #GermanRealEstate, from the #BOJ to $GOOG and on and on. What do all those I mentioned have in common? They…
WHY ALL OF A SUDDEN ARE SO MANY HIGH PROFILE INSIDERS SELLING THEIR #STOCKS?
Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Jamie Dimon, the Walton family, $AMD CEO Lisa Su are just some of the high profile insiders that have been selling big chunks of their #stocks in recent weeks. If you take a snapshot of insider volumes in the last 60 days (chart 1 – credit…
THE GREAT PARADOX – BECAUSE OF DECADES OF RECKLESS QE, CENTRAL BANKS SHOULD HIKE RATES TO SAVE THE *REAL* ECONOMY NOT THE OPPOSITE
How many people have you read about or heard from lately who told you things like “hey, I am taking my savings and investing in this restaurant” or “I am so good at my job I quit and set up my own shop”? I bet very few. Indeed, new business…
CHINA STOCKS – IS THE BOTTOM IN?
Last week, the #HongKong HSI index was up 5.5% despite only having 3 trading days due to the Chinese New Year holidays. #China index futures were also up ~3% in the same timeframe. Trading is about to resume in mainland #China along with all the country’s business activity after the…