The other day, I was going through some old notes of mine, and I came across one I took about the 1MDB scandal. This is what I wrote in my notebook: “The US Government made it clear that, even if it occurred outside its borders, it has the right to…
Category:Macro
A MESSAGE FROM #CHINA : DEBT DETOXING IS GOING TO BE LONG, PAINFUL AND NEEDED NOT TO RISK THE ECONOMY DIES OF OVERDOSE AT SOME POINT
A lot of people, including myself, often draw parallels between 2008 and today. However, what should really be compared are the first and second largest economies in the world. Both #China and the #US have fueled enormous real estate bubbles that have since become #stocks market bubbles. The only difference…
WHY #CHINA MARGIN LENDING NIGHTMARE IS A BIG WARNING TO #US AND #EUROPE #STOCKS
As you know, I am currently in mainland #China, so please forgive me if I am going to be extra careful about anything I write until next week. Yesterday, #China #stocks suddenly started to free fall in what could have turned into a 1987 style crash if it wasn’t for…
WE JUST WATCHED JEROME POWELL “WALKING ON EGGS” FOR #60MINUTES!
Today, Jerome Powell reminded everyone why he fully deserves to be called Jerome Burns instead (in honor of the #FED chairman Arthur Burns, the one that couldn’t get anything right). For the entire length of his 60 Minutes interview, you can really understand: 🚩The #FED chair denies being a politician,…
THE SHOW MUST GO ON… UNTIL THE END
The famous Queen’s song is a perfect fit as the soundtrack of the current stock market, isn’t it? Anything that doesn’t fit the (manic) #fomo narrative must be ignored, even though the giant 560bn $USD size #CRE Elephant in the room is now patting people on the shoulder. What’s that…
IS $NYCB THE CANARY IN THE $UBS COAL MINE?
Sorry, folks, but after our beloved Jerome Burns’s performance at the last #FOMC, 2 things are clear: 🚩 The #FED knows they’ve screwed up the fight against #inflation and it’s going to flare back up to a point where (political) adjustment won’t be able to hide what’s obvious in the…
DEAR JEROME BURNS, TODAY YOU MUST TELL THE WORLD WHAT COMES AFTER THE #BTFP…
During the last session, investors piled into financial #stocks with $XLF up 1.26%, and several major banks had a good green day ahead of the next #FOMC. Since October, $XLF is up 24% despite banks’ books starting to have more holes than Emmental cheese 🧀 (and some even starting to…
FEBRUARY 2020 ALL OVER AGAIN?
In 2020, stock markets in the #US and #Europe peaked on the 19th of February, while #China and #HongKong ones peaked exactly one month prior, on the 20th of January. In a great twist of destiny, on the 21st of February this year, $NVDA is scheduled to report its Q4-23…
EVERGRANDE – GAME OVER (AND THEN CHAOS) OR NOT TOMORROW?
Will the #Evergrande never-ending story finally come to an end tomorrow, or will the #HongKong Judge, Justice Linda Chan, adjourn the hearing for the 8th time in the hope that a miracle suddenly strikes #Evergrande from the skies and fixes the whole mess? If the hearing is adjourned again, not…
WITHOUT THE FED BTFP, BANKS WILL NOW HAVE A HARDER TIME TO “HIDE TILL MATURITY” THEIR LOSSES
I started the year writing about how in 2024 the practice used by banks of hiding their losses in Hold to Maturity books (hence “hide till maturity”) would have come to an end [Post Below]. However, I was wrong there, because I wrote this: “As I explained in a post…