Today, Jerome Powell reminded everyone why he fully deserves to be called Jerome Burns instead (in honor of the #FED chairman Arthur Burns, the one that couldn’t get anything right). For the entire length of his 60 Minutes interview, you can really understand: 🚩The #FED chair denies being a politician,…
Category:Macro
THE SHOW MUST GO ON… UNTIL THE END
The famous Queen’s song is a perfect fit as the soundtrack of the current stock market, isn’t it? Anything that doesn’t fit the (manic) #fomo narrative must be ignored, even though the giant 560bn $USD size #CRE Elephant in the room is now patting people on the shoulder. What’s that…
IS $NYCB THE CANARY IN THE $UBS COAL MINE?
Sorry, folks, but after our beloved Jerome Burns’s performance at the last #FOMC, 2 things are clear: 🚩 The #FED knows they’ve screwed up the fight against #inflation and it’s going to flare back up to a point where (political) adjustment won’t be able to hide what’s obvious in the…
DEAR JEROME BURNS, TODAY YOU MUST TELL THE WORLD WHAT COMES AFTER THE #BTFP…
During the last session, investors piled into financial #stocks with $XLF up 1.26%, and several major banks had a good green day ahead of the next #FOMC. Since October, $XLF is up 24% despite banks’ books starting to have more holes than Emmental cheese 🧀 (and some even starting to…
FEBRUARY 2020 ALL OVER AGAIN?
In 2020, stock markets in the #US and #Europe peaked on the 19th of February, while #China and #HongKong ones peaked exactly one month prior, on the 20th of January. In a great twist of destiny, on the 21st of February this year, $NVDA is scheduled to report its Q4-23…
EVERGRANDE – GAME OVER (AND THEN CHAOS) OR NOT TOMORROW?
Will the #Evergrande never-ending story finally come to an end tomorrow, or will the #HongKong Judge, Justice Linda Chan, adjourn the hearing for the 8th time in the hope that a miracle suddenly strikes #Evergrande from the skies and fixes the whole mess? If the hearing is adjourned again, not…
WITHOUT THE FED BTFP, BANKS WILL NOW HAVE A HARDER TIME TO “HIDE TILL MATURITY” THEIR LOSSES
I started the year writing about how in 2024 the practice used by banks of hiding their losses in Hold to Maturity books (hence “hide till maturity”) would have come to an end [Post Below]. However, I was wrong there, because I wrote this: “As I explained in a post…
CHINA WANTS INVESTORS AND THEIR MONEY BACK – WILL IT SUCCEED THIS TIME?
#China and #HongKong #stocks were literally on the verge of free falling when the “national team” stepped in last week to the rescue. Clearly, the benefits of it were short-lived and yesterday the $HSI closed again below the 15,000 mark. Some #bullish hedge funds that went all-in on #china #stocks…
NOT EVERY “ALL TIME HIGH” IS THE SAME – YES, THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT
he S&P500 closed at new all-time highs last Friday. Yet, have you noticed way fewer people are celebrating this time around? Yes, because indeed this time is different. In all fairness, Bloomberg tried to kick off the party but published one of the articles that has good chances to make…
TRADERS AND (ZOMBIE) COMPANIES NOW PRAYING #INFLATION IS NOT COMING BACK
The text discusses concerns about a potential resurgence of inflation, challenging the notion that central banks have successfully tamed it. Recent UK inflation data for December suggests a possible upward trend, prompting questions about the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting plans. Bond traders are adjusting their bets, and the author predicts a likely rise in interest rates unless a significant event disrupts the current pattern. The impending maturity of substantial debt in 2024 adds pressure on yields. Regarding stocks, the author questions the bullish outlook, considering the impact of rising rates and the potential for another crisis. The conclusion advises caution and suggests buying insurance amid market uncertainties.