Thank you for waiting, but I assure you what follows isn’t going to disappoint you! Two months ago in “This time is NOT different – Part 2,” I flagged how my analysis at that time flashed (big) red warnings on several US banks (TwitterX). My analysis today will expand on…
THE RISK OF A $VIX TURKEY BURSTING OUT FROM THE (SOFTBANK) OVEN
Something happened yesterday that has been broadly ignored: the Bank Of Japan printed ~10bn $USD equivalent in $JPY and delivered an adrenaline shot of liquidity to the market. Hold on a second, why the need to inject liquidity through the back door without any apparent need? The answer is straightforward:…
$NVDA (PONZI) “LIES” UNDER $NVDA NOSE
I know a couple of things here and there about running a company, from work and direct experience. One thing is how easy it is to “grow” your revenues when your clients aren’t going to pay for the goods you deliver. Another is to understand whether revenues are real or…
IN A SCRAMBLE TO SURVIVE, SOFTBANK IS KILLING ALIBABA!
$BABA closed the last session crashing 9% after results beating expectations across the board, leaving many dumbfounded. Of course, the media quickly made up a narrative to write a story that could more or less fit the price action: “Alibaba crashes after pulling its Cloud Unit listing due to US…
WARNING: SOMETHING BROKE!
Yesterday, we were discussing the signs of “Panic behind closed doors” (TwitterX), today we have 100% certainty that something big enough to justify extreme actions from the US Government and US Regulatory Agencies broke somewhere. How else we can justify the SEC is still holding back the “Fails To Deliver…
PANIC BEHIND CLOSED DOORS
So, as I wrote 24h ago, it was clear to anyone paying attention that the Bank Of Japan put itself in a very dangerous spot (TwitterX). Back in 1992, when the Bank Of England was in danger, the Bundesbank cut rates 25bp even if it didn’t make any sense for…
NOW THE HEDGE FUNDS (HYENAS) KNOW THE #BOJ (LION) IS VULNERABLE!
A big powerful “Minsky Moment” struck many investors, including me, around 10am EST on Monday when the last #BOJ intervention barely moved the needle in the FX market. If you think the BOJ can simply hike rates to strengthen the $JPY, then you don’t realize that when a central bank…
Is ARM The Canary In The $NVDA Coal Mine?
Newspapers have been cheering up the “deal” this week where Softbank managed Vision Fund successfully sold ARM 25% it owned to… Softbank. In September 2020, $NVDA agreed to buy the whole ARM from Softbank at a $40bn valuation paying in cash and shares (NVIDIA), but it preferred to lose $1.25bn…
The great paradox of CRE lending: while owners are freaking out, banks are chilling
Q2 US bank earnings reported so far paint such a rosy picture of CRE loan risk. Yes, they admit there will be an uptick in losses (maybe), but banks barely show any concern. So why are CRE landlords panicking, not being shy with the press, describing the situation as “apocalyptic”…