These days there are a lot of comparisons being made with what happened in previous financial crises that unfolded after times of irrational exuberance and reckless monetary policy, but many are failing to grasp how the current situation is hardly comparable to what happened in the past for many reasons….
IN JAPAN IT WILL BE A MESSY MONDAY, BUT NOT A BLACK ONE (YET)
When you go from “Japan’s Nikkei average closes at all-time high, breaks March record” to “Japan stocks take largest dive since Black Monday of 1987” in the span of a month, it already creates the type of roundtrip that leaves everyone pretty dizzy. The problem is the trip is far…
A TRAVELER GUIDE TO NAVIGATE THE BANK OF JAPAN MESS
First of all, let’s do a quick recap of how we got here: At this point, something very important happens. On the 30th of July, right after US stocks opened for cash trading, someone very big was clearly being margin called and liquidated as I warned in this post here…
MICROSOFT REVENUES “ROUND TRIPPING” PONZI SCHEME IS NOW TOO BIG TO HIDE – THE TRUTH FROM THE CASH FLOWS
Wow, what a great quarter and great 2024 for #Microsoft, every business (except devices) is growing its revenues and the sun couldn’t be brighter on Redmond, yada yada yada, high five high five. This was pretty much the summary of Microsoft earnings call. Investors’ reaction after earnings release? Microsoft shares…
IT HAS NEVER BEEN A BUBBLE IN AI, BUT A PONZI SCHEME IN SEMICONDUCTOR STOCKS SINCE THE VERY BEGINNING
How many “AI” companies are currently listed? No, you should not include those “AI washing” their operations and earnings calls in the count. I refer to companies where AI is their core business, like advertising through internet search for Google, for example. Let me help you out, the number is…
FED AND BOJ WILL DO EVERYTHING THEY CAN THIS WEEK TO SAVE THE STOCKS BUBBLE ONCE AGAIN
This week #FED and #BOJ have a lot to lose and very little to gain, a situation they put themselves into and that nobody tried to stop them from falling into. The money printer made so many people happy since the aftermath of the GFC, no motivation for anyone getting…
A KIND PIECE OF ADVICE FOR EVERYONE
Just a week ago, people were cheering yet another guru predicting mind-blowing growth for stocks like #NVIDIA (Nvidia’s market cap will soar to $50 trillion—yes, trillion—says early investor in Amazon and Tesla). Then, why were they holding their breath so anxiously when the stock was dangerously heading fast towards the…
CHINA HAS BEEN THE FIRST ONE TO ABANDON THE QE ABERRATION, WHO IS GOING TO BE NEXT?
“Higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic expansion.” This is how on the 5th of November 2010 the almighty Ben Bernanke himself was…
WHAT BULL MARKET? ALL-TIME HIGH DESPAIR AMONG BANKERS
Three months ago, before Q1-24 banks’ earnings season kicked off, I collected all feedback gathered from bank insiders in “GET READY, INSIDERS TOLD ME A HORRIBLE BANKS’ EARNINGS SEASON IS ABOUT TO BEGIN”. However, banks put on a great show of accounting acrobatics and magic tricks to make sure they…
WHY THE BANK OF JAPAN IS DANGEROUSLY PLAYING WITH THE DERIVATIVES FIRE
On the 29th of April, something very special happened, yet many did not grasp the importance of the event. Even if that day was a public holiday in Japan, hence there was no real liquidity in the US Treasuries (both spot and related derivatives) market overnight hours as usual, the…