In 2020, stock markets in the #US and #Europe peaked on the 19th of February, while #China and #HongKong ones peaked exactly one month prior, on the 20th of January.
In a great twist of destiny, on the 21st of February this year, $NVDA is scheduled to report its Q4-23 financial results. It truly feels like #stocks will keep chasing their AI north star, no matter what happens prior to that.
$AMD, $MSFT, and other #fomo #stocks are set to report today after the bell, but frankly speaking, what’s the point in commenting on numbers that we know in advance have been inflated (at a minimum), if not mostly fabricated (at the maximum)?
$AMD’s market capitalization isn’t as high as $NVDA’s, only because they started fabricating their numbers at a later stage (booking as revenues the “massive” pre-orders popping up out of nowhere from phantom clients).
$MSFT, on the other hand, is a 3 trillion $USD market cap company that needed to fake a 10bn$ investment in #OpenAI to boost its revenue line. Yes, in case you missed it, $MSFT only invested ~1bn$ cash in #OpenAI, while the rest were all “credits” for #OpenAI to use $MSFT’s Azure services (see the post TwitterX). Translated: $MSFT made up revenues in the same way a magician pulls a white 🐇 out of his 🎩!
The $MSFT “trick” has been so clearly (ab)used by Silicon Valley that the US FTC authority just launched an inquiry into Generative AI Investments and Partnerships. (TwitterX).
Why people pretended to be so surprised when this news hit last week, I am not sure. Months back, I literally wrote this during the #OpenAI drama: “IT WILL NOW BE HARDER FOR THE REGULATOR TO TURN A BLIND EYE TO CORPORATE MALPRACTICES.”
Similar to February 2020, people living at the other end of the Silk Road or across the Pacific Ocean can’t grasp the magnitude of the events unfolding in Asia. By allowing #Evergrande to fall into liquidation, the Chinese government made it clear that people’s taxpayer money will be used to rescue taxpayer people in trouble, not reckless #stocks and #bonds speculators.
Do you think this was “priced in”? Of course not, and the fact that yesterday morning investors were still #BTFD into #Evergrande stock, in complete denial of what was happening, clearly proves that (TwitterX).
This is the first tile to fall in a very long domino that will continue with names like Country Garden, Sunac, and Shimao, to end with big international banks and investors that, since 2008, have been buying China Real Estate developers debt as if there was no tomorrow, despite the near-death experience they just had with the implosion of the Subprime bubble in the US. As if this wasn’t enough, the #CRE and Subprime Consumer Loans bubbles in the US are ready to pop at the same time today.
The cherry on the cake? The #FED just pulled away the #BTFP safety net from the system (TwitterX) and is now telling banks they have to get their acts together ASAP because, in an election year, the political cost of a bailout will be too risky to handle for an already unpopular incumbent president seeking reelection.
Read on TwitterX