A piece of breaking news like this one should have sent markets into panic mode: “China Weighs Injecting $142 Billion of Capital Into Top Banks“. However, due to a boiling frog syndrome that is trapping the vast majority of the public, both retail and professional, no one is feeling the…
Category:FED
FED ACTION TODAY MARKS THE BEGINNING OF THE END OF THE FIAT MONETARY SYSTEM EXPERIMENT
The FED just delivered an oversized cut with the S&P500 trading at all-time highs, signalling that, contrary to their mandate, their focus isn’t the economy anymore but to deliver the political agenda of the US Administration in charge. That the FED is now clearly solely focused on defending the stock…
WHAT IF BANKS ARE COORDINATING WITH THE FED TO LIQUIDATE TENS OF BILLIONS OF TROUBLED JPY CARRY TRADE POSITIONS?
What’s currently happening in markets makes little sense, to say the least, but lately, I received several interesting comments on my posts and articles that brought back memories of my time on the trading floor. One comment last week pointed at the usual practice (an open secret) between banks of…
HOW LONG WILL THIS BUBBLE LAST? IT LOOKS LIKE TILL Q1-2025
“How long will this bubble last” is a question I receive constantly although lately, the frequency has been increasing. My usual answer is “I am afraid, it is impossible to tell”, however I struggled to remove this thought from my mind so I decided to give it a try and…
IS THE MARKET PRICING A FED CUT OR IS A NEW BANKING CRISIS ABOUT TO SPARK AGAIN?
For traders, a FED rate cut next week is a done deal, and portfolios have already been positioned accordingly. This is the narrative force-fed by MSM to the public that everyone is expected to embrace. However, today I would like to offer you a different perspective. What if this strong…
HOW THE US TREASURY HAS BEEN ACTIVELY CONTRIBUTING TO INFLATE THE STOCK BUBBLE, BUT NOW IS RUNNING OUT OF ROOM TO DO SO
So many people lately have been talking and writing a lot about the US Treasury “Buy Back” program officially started in May this year with the excuse of improving liquidity in the US Treasuries market (Debt buyback program set to improve liquidity, says US Treasury official). However, what many fail…
IF THE FED CUTS RATES, THE DAMAGES WILL BE FAR GREATER THAN THE BENEFITS
Two weeks ago, traders assigned a 60% probability to a FED emergency rate cut, potentially up to 75 basis points. Let me stress this point: an emergency rate cut isn’t an ordinary one. What was the “emergency” that required such a swift and powerful action from the FED two weeks…
HOW ARE FINANCIAL MARKETS GOING TO REACT IF JOE BIDEN ENDS UP DROPPING OUT OF THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE?
The current market structure, though robust on the surface, maybe one of the most fragile in history. On one side, you have investors, both retail and professional, who tend to #FOMO into anything that rises (although professional investors call that the “momentum” strategy). On the other side, you have algorithms…
WHICH BANKS ARE AT RISK OF GOING BUST IN A LIQUIDITY CRISIS? – EPISODE 2
In September 2023, I addressed for the first time the (nasty) topic of #banks’ balance sheet health in the “This time is not different” post on X. After that, I expanded the analysis to large US and European banks in “WHICH BANKS ARE AT RISK OF GOING BUST IN A…
HOW LOW WILL THE EUR SINK THIS TIME?
Last week, the European Central Bank (#ECB) didn’t make a policy mistake. As we discussed in “AFTER JAPAN, NOW IT’S EUROPE’S TURN TO SACRIFICE ITSELF TO KEEP THE US MARKET BUBBLE ALIVE UNTIL THE ELECTIONS”, they simply acted to serve the US Federal Reserve (#FED) interests. The market now expects…