The Q4-2024 banks earnings season officially started with JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, BNY Mellon, and Citigroup kicking off the “beat expectations” parade: Between one “Kumbaya!” and a “High Five!”, one small detail across all these earnings reports clashes significantly with reality: provisions for expected credit losses. Before diving…
Category:Financial Analysis
THE COUNTDOWN TO NVIDIA PROFIT WARNING
A very important event occurred on May 6th, 2022, that many NVIDIA investors are unaware of: “SEC Charges NVIDIA Corporation with Inadequate Disclosures about Impact of Cryptomining“ Let’s examine what Nvidia did, shall we? These words come directly from the SEC. As incredible as it sounds, Chief Kristina Littman stated:…
STATE FARM KNEW A LOS ANGELES (FINANCIAL) CATASTROPHE WAS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME
Insurance isn’t really an area that I had much interest in, mostly because in the countries where I’ve lived, it has generally been a well-run and stable business. However, the recent Los Angeles wildfires prompted me to look into this sector in California more closely, and what I discovered is…
MICROSOFT BET THE FARM ON OPENAI, BUT IT LOST THE BET
Roughly 24 hours ago, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman first published a long blog post to celebrate 2 years since the launch of ChatGPT (Blog Post), then shortly after, this post appeared on X: This post is the incredible confirmation of what we observed two weeks ago in “MICROSOFT CEO KNOWS…
MICROSOFT CEO KNOWS HIS REVENUES ROUND-TRIPPING SCHEME IS FALLING APART AND IS PREPARING TO CONTAIN THE DAMAGES
Have you noticed how more and more people are distancing themselves from S(c)am Altman? Microsoft’s CEO, who according to his own words “bet the farm on OpenAI”, is the latest high-profile figure showing signs of frustration towards OpenAI’s CEO, despite his best efforts to hide them. Who can blame him?…
WHY A TSUNAMI OF STOCK OPTIONS SPECULATIVE MONEY IS GOING TO FLOOD CRYPTO ALTCOINS
If you think that the semiconductor stocks bubble popping will mark an end to the speculative mania, I am afraid that won’t happen for 2 reasons: How are institutional investors going to reposition? As I already anticipated long ago, they will keep rotating into financial stocks and Bitcoin: Don’t believe…
MARKETS ARE QUIET – TOO QUIET
This is supposed to be a “quiet” week ahead of US Thanksgiving that ushers in the last month of the year when no money manager is willing to spoil their performance and put their year-end bonus in danger by trying to make changes in asset allocation. The VIX term structure…
WHY A HEALTHY ECONOMY IS BAD FOR BANKS AND SHADOW BANKS BUSINESSES
Imagine a world where people only spend what they earn or where companies borrow to build new factories and use the additional revenues generated to repay the debt. Imagine a world where you have to plan and save enough money in advance to make an expensive purchase or where governments…
A DEEP DIVE BEYOND NVIDIA (COOKED) NUMBERS
Currently, Nvidia is the company with the highest market capitalization in the world. Sorry, I won’t call it “the most valuable” because price and value are two different things, and it would be an intellectual insult to refer to it as such. There are pros and cons to becoming such…
HOW LONG WILL THE MARKET IGNORE NORINCHUKIN BANK INSOLVENCY?
Is it possible for a bank to continue operating while being insolvent? The answer is yes, and Norinchukin Bank is the best example of it at the moment. I started to follow Norinchukin closely a long time ago (article) and the reason why I continue is because this little-known bank…