The next BOJ policy rate decision is approaching and, of course, much speculation surrounds it. I will not join the crowd because regardless of what happens next, it won’t change Japan’s fate in the medium to long term, as I have already discussed in these articles: The BOJ decision will…
Category:Japan
HOW LONG WILL THE MARKET IGNORE NORINCHUKIN BANK INSOLVENCY?
Is it possible for a bank to continue operating while being insolvent? The answer is yes, and Norinchukin Bank is the best example of it at the moment. I started to follow Norinchukin closely a long time ago (article) and the reason why I continue is because this little-known bank…
SOFTBANK IS RUNNING OUT OF CASH, BUT NO WORRIES NVIDIA IS TRYING TO RESCUE IT
As I was finishing up drafting this article, a “breaking news” pops up: “SoftBank to get first NVIDIA chips for Japan super computer”. How timely, right? SoftBank just released its quarterly financial statements that leave not much room for doubt: SoftBank group only has cash to stay in business for…
MARKET EUPHORIA VS. ECONOMIC REALITY: GLOBAL STOCKS SOAR AS CRACKS DEEPEN BENEATH
To be completely honest, when I saw what happened today in the first minutes of trading in the Japanese stock market, my jaw dropped to the floor. I could not believe my eyes, literally. The outcome of Japan’s elections has been quite bad, with the government in charge effectively now…
JAPAN ISN’T ALLOWED TO IMPLODE BEFORE US ELECTIONS, BUT NOT EVERYTHING IS UNDER CONTROL AND THE CHANCES FOR A REAL BLACK MONDAY TO SPARK ARE NOT THAT LOW
Last Friday, a few minutes after the Tokyo stock exchange closed for the week, news about Shigeru Ishiba winning the LDP party leadership elections, making him virtually the next Prime Minister, jolted Japan’s futures and FX markets. Why did Japan stock futures crash more than 7% after the news? Because…
WILL BOJ AND GPIF BE ABLE TO SAVE JAPAN FROM ANOTHER BLACK MONDAY?
Many investors and traders aren’t enjoying this weekend after what happened on Friday following the US NFP release. The immediate market reaction was, as usual, positive, with trading algorithms flooding US futures with bids while dumping volatility hedging, simultaneously crushing the VIX almost vertically from ~22.3 to ~19. However, the…
HOW COULD JAPAN RECOVER SO FAST FROM THE WORST CRASH SINCE 1987? THANKS TO ITS GPIF “ANGEL”
No person can pretend to know everything; it is simply not humanly possible. If anyone claims to do so, more often than not, they actually know little in reality. Personally, I use an investigative approach in everything I do, most of all to fill the gaps in my ignorance. This…
IF JPY CARRY TRADE TROUBLES SPOIL THE UPCOMING NVIDIA PARTY, GET READY FOR A SPIKE IN VOLATILITY
From a fundamental perspective, no matter from which angle you look at it, NVIDIA should be nowhere near its current price for a number of reasons, most of which are shady, to say the least, we discussed so far: However, here we are with a 3 trillion-plus market cap stock…
THE LARGE AND SECRETIVE UK HEDGE FUND “ADDICTED” TO JPY CARRY TRADING
Trying to dig deep and understand what happened between the 2nd and 5th of August of such magnitude to trigger a crash in Japanese markets worse than 1987, a name kept being mentioned: “Capula”. Let me be honest, I have never dealt with this hedge fund before, and my direct…
NORINCHUKIN BANK CHAOS CAN TRIGGER AT ANY MOMENT
I started to cover Norinchukin Bank many months ago already (“WHY IS THE FED PREPARING TO BAIL OUT A JAPANESE BANK? BECAUSE OF THE “NORINCHUKIN” DANGER”) and since then the situation of one of the biggest Japanese banks has become worse and worse: A few weeks ago Norinchukin released its…