The 2013 gold market crash, triggered by a sudden collapse in COMEX futures prices, exposed vulnerabilities in the global gold trading system. At that time, paper gold markets—dominated by futures contracts and speculative trading—overshadowed physical demand, creating a fragile equilibrium. Investors watched in disbelief as prices plummeted nearly 30% in…
Category:Macro
THE POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES OF A SHORT SQUEEZE ON BOE GOLD EXPOSURE
Before diving into what’s happening in the gold market, with a particular focus on the Bank of England, let me first share a broader view of the dynamics at play for better understanding. The physical gold market is where people buy and sell real gold in the form of bars,…
WHY MAKING AMERICA GREAT AGAIN IS SUCH A BAD NEWS FOR MANY (GREEDY) US INVESTORS
It is no mystery that U.S. companies that produce goods in other countries, like China, and sell them in the U.S., have successfully implemented many strategies over the years to maximize profits while minimizing taxation on their operations, especially profit tax. One common strategy is transfer pricing, which involves setting…
IN THE UPCOMING MAG7 EARNINGS SEASON QUESTIONS WILL MATTER MORE THAN NUMBERS
The Mag7 earnings season is about to kick off with Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla on Wednesday, followed by Apple on Thursday. Then the focus will shift next week to Alphabet on Tuesday and Amazon on Thursday. The last Mag7 company to report, perhaps the most important by far this time…
THE REASON WHY STOCKS OF COMPANIES THAT FAIL TO DELIVER HARDLY SELL OFF
Have you noticed how large companies are increasingly announcing initiatives and projects without well-defined business plans or existing funding, which are expected to generate results several years in the future? Have you observed how many large companies are launching products with claimed huge sales potentials that never materialize? The beyond…
HOW IS SCOTT BESSENT GOING TO DEAL WITH THE BANK OF JAPAN?
The next BOJ policy rate decision is approaching and, of course, much speculation surrounds it. I will not join the crowd because regardless of what happens next, it won’t change Japan’s fate in the medium to long term, as I have already discussed in these articles: The BOJ decision will…
CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES VS BANKS EXPECTED CREDIT LOSSES: TWO PARALLEL WORLDS
The Q4-2024 banks earnings season officially started with JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, BNY Mellon, and Citigroup kicking off the “beat expectations” parade: Between one “Kumbaya!” and a “High Five!”, one small detail across all these earnings reports clashes significantly with reality: provisions for expected credit losses. Before diving…
STATE FARM KNEW A LOS ANGELES (FINANCIAL) CATASTROPHE WAS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME
Insurance isn’t really an area that I had much interest in, mostly because in the countries where I’ve lived, it has generally been a well-run and stable business. However, the recent Los Angeles wildfires prompted me to look into this sector in California more closely, and what I discovered is…
THE CENTRAL BANK “KING” IS MORE AND MORE “NAKED”
“Why are central banks cutting rates while yields are going up? How is this possible?” This is the question many people are asking themselves at the moment. Surprisingly, those experiencing the highest degree of confusion and bewilderment appear to be institutional investors rather than retail investors. The reason is that…
THE BIG MISUNDERSTANDING ON WHY CHINA BOND YIELDS KEEP FALLING
China’s 10-year government bond yields have just hit a historic low at 1.64%. Despite this downward trend continuing for a while, there is still a great deal of misunderstanding about what’s happening here in the Western part of the world (with many mainstream media and social media “gurus” not missing…