Finally, here we are with only one day left until the end of the most tragicomic US Presidential campaign ever. So far, investors do not seem too concerned about it, considering the shape of the VIX curve. Yes, some have put some hedging in place, but as you can see,…
Category:Macro
MARKET EUPHORIA VS. ECONOMIC REALITY: GLOBAL STOCKS SOAR AS CRACKS DEEPEN BENEATH
To be completely honest, when I saw what happened today in the first minutes of trading in the Japanese stock market, my jaw dropped to the floor. I could not believe my eyes, literally. The outcome of Japan’s elections has been quite bad, with the government in charge effectively now…
CRE CRISIS: HIDDEN LOSSES AND QUESTIONABLE OPTIMISM IN DEUTSCHE BANK’S Q3-24 REPORT
How is it possible that Deutsche Bank’s provisions for credit losses related to Commercial Real Estate (CRE) loans DECREASED by 34% compared to Q2-24? No, I am not joking; it is right there hidden in the fine print of the bank’s Q3-24 report as you can see below. Furthermore, “The…
THE FED’S HIDDEN QE: HOW BANKS ARE PROPPING UP ASSET PRICES AT THE COST OF FUTURE INFLATION
A few days ago in “EXPOSING THE ILLUSION: HOW MODERN ECONOMICS FUELS WEALTH INEQUALITY AND ZOMBIE MARKETS,” I discussed how current economic theories, often used to guide market decisions, are being contradicted by the actual results they produce. Right now, many are puzzled by how the USD, US yields, and…
HOW THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION SET UP MINE FIELDS ALL OVER THE US ECONOMY TO UNDERMINE THE FUTURE GOVERNMENT IN CASE THEY LOSE ELECTIONS
First of all, for those not familiar with it, let me quickly describe what is a minefield. Literally speaking a minefield is an area planted with explosive devices designed to deter or damage enemy forces, and it is primarily used as a defensive measure to control movement and protect strategic…
THE ECB: EUROPE’S CONTRADICTIONS BUREAU, NOT JUST THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Let’s dive into the latest ECB press release, specifically focusing on the main reason behind their decision to cut rates by 25 basis points today: “Inflation is expected to rise in the coming months, before declining to target in the course of next year. Domestic inflation remains high, as wages…
EXPOSING THE ILLUSION: HOW MODERN ECONOMICS FUELS WEALTH INEQUALITY AND ZOMBIE MARKETS
Two months ago, in FINANCIAL MARKETS REACHED A “SINGULARITY” NO ONE WANTS TO DEAL WITH, I tried to highlight how legacy economic theories—built on assumptions that never fully materialized decades ago—are now ineffective in today’s economic context. In that article, I emphasized five key points: Today, @thesiriusreport posted one of…
THE PROS AND CONS OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: A USEFULT TOOL, BUT ALSO A TRAP FOR BEHAVIOURAL BIASES
I don’t expect many traders to truly reflect on the pitfalls of technical analysis, even after countless trading mistakes have already been made. While its value might seem obvious to anyone dazzled by the endless price charts and patterns, those who fall victim to its traps often don’t realize what’s…
THIS IS TRULY THE GOLDEN AGE FOR FRAUDS – BUT A REAL LIFETIME OPPORTUNITY IS ALSO COMING
I do not expect many people to learn a lesson from what happened today in Hong Kong’s stock market. While the hype fades in this corner of the market, it will surely resurface in another corner. Perhaps in the US, where fraudulent trading has been running wild in the past…
IS THE OIL PRICE ABOUT TO BECOME A KEY TOPIC OF THE US PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN?
Oil price is perhaps the most manipulated asset price right now after gold and silver managed to escape BIS trading desk claws lately. Let’s start from where we left this topic almost one year ago when the Biden administration successfully managed to crush the oil price through the floor all…