As you know, I have been investigating US real estate, especially #CRE, since early last year (JustDario). Nowadays, the ginormous bubble popping up while #stocks keep hitting new ATH records is not a secret anymore. Surprisingly, despite the banking crisis that started in January 2023 and was never solved (the…
Category:Macro
FROM THE AMERICAN DREAM TO PONZI LAND
The other day, I was going through some old notes of mine, and I came across one I took about the 1MDB scandal. This is what I wrote in my notebook: “The US Government made it clear that, even if it occurred outside its borders, it has the right to…
A MESSAGE FROM #CHINA : DEBT DETOXING IS GOING TO BE LONG, PAINFUL AND NEEDED NOT TO RISK THE ECONOMY DIES OF OVERDOSE AT SOME POINT
A lot of people, including myself, often draw parallels between 2008 and today. However, what should really be compared are the first and second largest economies in the world. Both #China and the #US have fueled enormous real estate bubbles that have since become #stocks market bubbles. The only difference…
WHY #CHINA MARGIN LENDING NIGHTMARE IS A BIG WARNING TO #US AND #EUROPE #STOCKS
As you know, I am currently in mainland #China, so please forgive me if I am going to be extra careful about anything I write until next week. Yesterday, #China #stocks suddenly started to free fall in what could have turned into a 1987 style crash if it wasn’t for…
WE JUST WATCHED JEROME POWELL “WALKING ON EGGS” FOR #60MINUTES!
Today, Jerome Powell reminded everyone why he fully deserves to be called Jerome Burns instead (in honor of the #FED chairman Arthur Burns, the one that couldn’t get anything right). For the entire length of his 60 Minutes interview, you can really understand: 🚩The #FED chair denies being a politician,…
THE SHOW MUST GO ON… UNTIL THE END
The famous Queen’s song is a perfect fit as the soundtrack of the current stock market, isn’t it? Anything that doesn’t fit the (manic) #fomo narrative must be ignored, even though the giant 560bn $USD size #CRE Elephant in the room is now patting people on the shoulder. What’s that…
IS $NYCB THE CANARY IN THE $UBS COAL MINE?
Sorry, folks, but after our beloved Jerome Burns’s performance at the last #FOMC, 2 things are clear: 🚩 The #FED knows they’ve screwed up the fight against #inflation and it’s going to flare back up to a point where (political) adjustment won’t be able to hide what’s obvious in the…
DEAR JEROME BURNS, TODAY YOU MUST TELL THE WORLD WHAT COMES AFTER THE #BTFP…
During the last session, investors piled into financial #stocks with $XLF up 1.26%, and several major banks had a good green day ahead of the next #FOMC. Since October, $XLF is up 24% despite banks’ books starting to have more holes than Emmental cheese 🧀 (and some even starting to…
FEBRUARY 2020 ALL OVER AGAIN?
In 2020, stock markets in the #US and #Europe peaked on the 19th of February, while #China and #HongKong ones peaked exactly one month prior, on the 20th of January. In a great twist of destiny, on the 21st of February this year, $NVDA is scheduled to report its Q4-23…
EVERGRANDE – GAME OVER (AND THEN CHAOS) OR NOT TOMORROW?
Will the #Evergrande never-ending story finally come to an end tomorrow, or will the #HongKong Judge, Justice Linda Chan, adjourn the hearing for the 8th time in the hope that a miracle suddenly strikes #Evergrande from the skies and fixes the whole mess? If the hearing is adjourned again, not…