Even if blessed with superpowers, in particular, the one of printing infinite money, the Federal Reserve is ultimately a “Bank” and like every superhero has a weak spot like Kryptonite for Superman. Being a “Bank”, hence required to remain solvent, is paradoxically the #FED’s weakness. Let me explain: 1 –…
Category:Macro
“WE HAVE NO ALTERNATIVE BUT TO RIDE STOCKS UNTIL THEY RUN”
Yesterday, I spent the evening with a good old friend, now a senior manager in a big financial firm, whom I will label as “Manager X” going forward. I believe some parts of our conversation will be interesting to everyone, my summary below 🙏🏻 1 – Why is there no…
THE PILE OF LIES USED TO RAISE THIS #STOCKS BULL MARKET UP TO THE SKY IS NOT WITHSTANDING GRAVITY ANYMORE
From $NVDA to Janet Yellen, from $AAPL to Jerome Powell, from $SMCI to Gary Gensler, from Joe Biden to the #BLS, from Rishi Sunak to $HSBC, from Christine Lagarde to #GermanRealEstate, from the #BOJ to $GOOG and on and on. What do all those I mentioned have in common? They…
WHY ALL OF A SUDDEN ARE SO MANY HIGH PROFILE INSIDERS SELLING THEIR #STOCKS?
Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Jamie Dimon, the Walton family, $AMD CEO Lisa Su are just some of the high profile insiders that have been selling big chunks of their #stocks in recent weeks. If you take a snapshot of insider volumes in the last 60 days (chart 1 – credit…
THE GREAT PARADOX – BECAUSE OF DECADES OF RECKLESS QE, CENTRAL BANKS SHOULD HIKE RATES TO SAVE THE *REAL* ECONOMY NOT THE OPPOSITE
How many people have you read about or heard from lately who told you things like “hey, I am taking my savings and investing in this restaurant” or “I am so good at my job I quit and set up my own shop”? I bet very few. Indeed, new business…
CHINA STOCKS – IS THE BOTTOM IN?
Last week, the #HongKong HSI index was up 5.5% despite only having 3 trading days due to the Chinese New Year holidays. #China index futures were also up ~3% in the same timeframe. Trading is about to resume in mainland #China along with all the country’s business activity after the…
THE INCOMING GERMAN REAL ESTATE MAYHEM
As you know, I have been investigating US real estate, especially #CRE, since early last year (JustDario). Nowadays, the ginormous bubble popping up while #stocks keep hitting new ATH records is not a secret anymore. Surprisingly, despite the banking crisis that started in January 2023 and was never solved (the…
FROM THE AMERICAN DREAM TO PONZI LAND
The other day, I was going through some old notes of mine, and I came across one I took about the 1MDB scandal. This is what I wrote in my notebook: “The US Government made it clear that, even if it occurred outside its borders, it has the right to…
A MESSAGE FROM #CHINA : DEBT DETOXING IS GOING TO BE LONG, PAINFUL AND NEEDED NOT TO RISK THE ECONOMY DIES OF OVERDOSE AT SOME POINT
A lot of people, including myself, often draw parallels between 2008 and today. However, what should really be compared are the first and second largest economies in the world. Both #China and the #US have fueled enormous real estate bubbles that have since become #stocks market bubbles. The only difference…
WHY #CHINA MARGIN LENDING NIGHTMARE IS A BIG WARNING TO #US AND #EUROPE #STOCKS
As you know, I am currently in mainland #China, so please forgive me if I am going to be extra careful about anything I write until next week. Yesterday, #China #stocks suddenly started to free fall in what could have turned into a 1987 style crash if it wasn’t for…