Despite the #BOJ panic intervention as soon as the #JPY broke 160 against the #USD, and a US Treasury QRA (Quarterly Refinancing Announcement) that has been disclosed for an amount higher than expected, the longer end part of the US government bonds yield curve did not bother to move that…
Category:Macro
STOP DREAMING – THE US ECONOMY HAS BEEN IN A RECESSION SINCE Q2 2021!
Every time I look at a new release of public, politically, seasonally adjusted data, I struggle not to smile (often, not to laugh lately). Things must be so bad this time that 7 months away from US elections, despite adjustments beyond the limits of human creativity, we’re getting this type…
THE JPY (COUNTERINTUITIVE) DOOM LOOP – THE MORE JPY LOSES VALUE, THE MORE LEVERAGE IS FORCED TO COME OFFLINE, THE MORE THE JPY LOSES VALUE
Almost 9 months ago now in the post “$JPY CARRY TRADE – THE BIGGEST FINANCIAL TICKING TIME BOMB OF ALL?“, I tried to explain how, in the current market conditions where the shortage of quality collateral assets is becoming incredibly scarce, a depreciating #JPY would have put the ginormous and…
THE NEXT CRYPTO ALTCOINS SEASON WILL BE A SPECTACULAR DISPLAY OF FOMO
All the talk about #crypto as of late has been mostly around #Bitcoin and the #Bitcoin ETF that, like it or not, has been the most successful ETF launch ever. A while ago, I explained what the #Bitcoin ETF meant for the whole #crypto industry (“WHY A BITCOIN ETF WILL…
WHITE COLLAR JOBS MASS UNEMPLOYMENT IS INEXORABLY AHEAD OF US WITH BRUTAL ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES
During the last three days in Dubai, I had the opportunity to talk with a lot of people, the vast majority of them working to develop new AI tools and businesses. The more I heard about what all of them are busy with, the more I grew concerned for the…
DOES ANYBODY CARE ABOUT THE UNFOLDING BANKING CRISIS ANYMORE?
Since last week, while the market was distracted by the geopolitical slapping contest between Israel and Iran, both large banks (#KBE) and regional banks (#KRE) lost 5%, outpacing the S&P500 by more than 2%. JP Morgan, surprisingly, is leading the tumble, down almost 8% since releasing its Q1-24 results. Bank…
NOW THAT THE JAPAN MAGIC MONEY TREE IS DEAD, EXPECT BANKS TO JUMP AT EACH OTHER’S THROATS
The answer to any problem Japan faced in the past 3 decades was “let’s just print our way out of it” and every time the global financial system was more than happy to swallow every drop of freshly printed #JPY. What were banks doing with all that money that “magically”…
STOCKS’ PURSUIT OF HAPPINESS: IGNORE EVERYTHING, EVEN THE BASIC LAWS OF FINANCIAL GRAVITY
The discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation model is a fundamental tool used in finance to estimate the intrinsic value of a company based on its expected future cash flows. It is based on the “time value of money” — the basic law of finance (a dollar received in the future…
JANET’S TOOTHLESS YELLING IN CHINA
Things can change a lot in 9 months, particularly when you spend those 9 months trying to kneecap (metaphorically speaking) your adversary after pretending to be “besties”. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s second trip to #China is so far a total failure with little to no chance of any improvement…
AFTER LOSING THEIR GRIP ON GOLD, ARE THE FED AND THE US GOVERNMENT ABOUT TO LOSE THEIR GRIP ON OIL PRICES TOO?
Was anyone surprised to see #FED chairman Jerome Burns walking on stage today and saying out loud all those buzzwords that for a while have been pretty effective in feeding investors’ euphoria? I wasn’t, after all, it was already pretty clear after the last #FOMC that the real fed mandate…