Back in August last year I wrote the article “IF THE FED CUTS RATES, THE DAMAGES WILL BE FAR GREATER THAN THE BENEFITS” to deliver the following warnings: “To all those who advocate rate cuts because those will benefit the economy, I dare to ask where exactly the economy will…
Category:Macro
WHY BITCOIN ISN’T JUST A CRYPTOCURRENCY ANYMORE BUT MORE AND MORE AN ASSET ON ITS OWN
Back in September last year in “IS THIS BLACKROCK’S MASTER PLAN FOR BITCOIN?” I described how the investment powerhouse BlackRock was laying the ground to make Bitcoin the golden goose and growth engine for its operations in the near future, considering how mature all other asset classes within the manager’s…
TARIFF WARS ARE OVER FOR NOW, BUT NEVERTHELESS THE INFLATION SPIRAL WILL CONTINUE
One month ago in the article “DEAR DONALD, THIS BATTLE IS LOST” this is what I suggested the US administration should have done to salvage the situation: “What should the US do now? Instead of borrowing a page from -The Art Of The Deal-, Donald Trump should consider reading Sun…
DRUMS OF WAR, KUMBAYA AND THE ART OF THE CONFUSION
The comparison between India’s and Pakistan’s stock markets perfectly illustrates the current state of financial markets, not only in the region but across the world. Let’s start with the smaller picture, where we find two nuclear-armed countries bombing each other this week, yet only one country’s stock market “noticed” while…
ARE WE 24 HOURS AWAY FROM A FED SURPRISE RATE CUT?
Right now, the futures market is pricing only a 2.7% probability of seeing the FED delivering a 25bp rate cut in the upcoming meeting. Considering the overall economic situation, my personal view is that the FED should be tightening financial conditions further, not the opposite. However, while US inflation remains…
WITHOUT THE FED RESUMING QE, THE US WILL FACE A DEBT CRISIS VERY SOON
If foreign countries and companies are going to have less USD going forward, who is going to buy US debt? These past few days, I have been paying close attention to the narratives and dynamics developing around the tariffs war topic, but somehow nobody has brought attention to the crucial…
DEAR DONALD, THIS BATTLE IS LOST
US Tariffs on China currently stand at 145% after the latest increase from the White House, while nearly every other country has been granted a 90-day pause to either negotiate a deal with the US or prepare for the tariffs’ fallout on their internal economies. On Wednesday, everyone was screaming…
TARIFF WARS: THE EMPIRE STRIKES BACK
I woke up, and the first headline I saw about what had happened in the US during my sleep was “We just increased tariffs on China to 104%” from President Trump. Once again, many people were caught by surprise, even though the US President had previously warned he would take…
TARIFF WARS: A NEW HOPE
Similar to Luke Skywalker taking a sigh of relief after successfully striking the Death Star, traders all around the world took a deep sigh of relief when the threat of the tariffs’ laser beam pulverizing their wealth did not materialize after a long weekend of “Black Monday is coming!” fear-mongering…
TRADERS GOT TRUMP WRONG AND WILL NOW PAY THE PRICE FOR THEIR MISTAKE
Two months ago in the article “WHY MAKING AMERICA GREAT AGAIN IS SUCH A BAD NEWS FOR MANY (GREEDY) US INVESTORS“, I warned that, contrary to popular belief, US companies (especially Apple) would be the ones to lose the most in the tariff war between the US and the rest…