No person can pretend to know everything; it is simply not humanly possible. If anyone claims to do so, more often than not, they actually know little in reality. Personally, I use an investigative approach in everything I do, most of all to fill the gaps in my ignorance. This…
Category:Macro
IF THE FED CUTS RATES, THE DAMAGES WILL BE FAR GREATER THAN THE BENEFITS
Two weeks ago, traders assigned a 60% probability to a FED emergency rate cut, potentially up to 75 basis points. Let me stress this point: an emergency rate cut isn’t an ordinary one. What was the “emergency” that required such a swift and powerful action from the FED two weeks…
DEAR BOJ, WHAT’S THIS SOUND ABOUT? “TIC TOC TIC TOC”
On 14 October 2008, the BOJ entered the bailout arena in full force with its “Introduction of Measures regarding Money Market Operations to Ensure Stability in Financial Markets.” Among the four “temporary” initiatives announced, the last one was the most crucial one… and remains the most crucial one today. “Expansion…
FINANCIAL MARKETS REACHED A “SINGULARITY” NO ONE WANTS TO DEAL WITH
Last week I wrote the provocative, but substantiated, “THIS IS NOT 1987, 2000, 2008 OR 2020, BUT A WHOLE NEW MARKET MONSTER” with the main goal of bringing to everyone’s attention how the current financial market is presented with many “unknown unknowns.” Today it’s worth looking a little deeper in…
THE JPY CARRY TRADE IMPLOSION CONTAGION IS ALREADY SPREADING INTO THE UK
While doing my best to untangle the mess of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), in particular, to figure out which financial institution/s could be in danger after what happened on Monday this week, I stumbled upon something very interesting. Please have a look. This chart represents the Bank of England…
THE LONGER THE BOJ TAKES TO CUT RATES BACK TO ZERO THE GREATER THE DAMAGE TO JAPAN’S BANKING SYSTEM.
On Monday last week in my preview of FOMC and BOJ policy meetings “FED AND BOJ WILL DO EVERYTHING THEY CAN THIS WEEK TO SAVE THE STOCKS BUBBLE ONCE AGAIN” I assumed the BOJ would be cognizant of the overall situation, hence I saw zero possibilities they would have hiked…
THIS IS NOT 1987, 2000, 2008 OR 2020, BUT A WHOLE NEW MARKET MONSTER
These days there are a lot of comparisons being made with what happened in previous financial crises that unfolded after times of irrational exuberance and reckless monetary policy, but many are failing to grasp how the current situation is hardly comparable to what happened in the past for many reasons….
A TRAVELER GUIDE TO NAVIGATE THE BANK OF JAPAN MESS
First of all, let’s do a quick recap of how we got here: At this point, something very important happens. On the 30th of July, right after US stocks opened for cash trading, someone very big was clearly being margin called and liquidated as I warned in this post here…
FED AND BOJ WILL DO EVERYTHING THEY CAN THIS WEEK TO SAVE THE STOCKS BUBBLE ONCE AGAIN
This week #FED and #BOJ have a lot to lose and very little to gain, a situation they put themselves into and that nobody tried to stop them from falling into. The money printer made so many people happy since the aftermath of the GFC, no motivation for anyone getting…
CHINA HAS BEEN THE FIRST ONE TO ABANDON THE QE ABERRATION, WHO IS GOING TO BE NEXT?
“Higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic expansion.” This is how on the 5th of November 2010 the almighty Ben Bernanke himself was…