Everyone makes mistakes; that’s part of being human, and I make mistakes as well from time to time. The mistake I made this past week was overlooking the fact that SMCI fell into the “Large Accelerated Filers” category (wrong post here) concerning the mandatory reporting requirements the company has to…
Category:Markets
HOW LONG WILL THIS BUBBLE LAST? IT LOOKS LIKE TILL Q1-2025
“How long will this bubble last” is a question I receive constantly although lately, the frequency has been increasing. My usual answer is “I am afraid, it is impossible to tell”, however I struggled to remove this thought from my mind so I decided to give it a try and…
IS THE MARKET PRICING A FED CUT OR IS A NEW BANKING CRISIS ABOUT TO SPARK AGAIN?
For traders, a FED rate cut next week is a done deal, and portfolios have already been positioned accordingly. This is the narrative force-fed by MSM to the public that everyone is expected to embrace. However, today I would like to offer you a different perspective. What if this strong…
THE FORGOTTEN LESSON FROM EVERY CRASH SINCE 1929: BE A BUYER WHEN THERE IS NO HOPE LEFT IN MARKETS
16 years have now passed since the GFC, the true last major financial markets crisis. Many people who started working at that time are now 35-40 years old and are at that stage of their lives when they start thinking about accumulating wealth for a comfortable retirement. Those who instead…
WILL BOJ AND GPIF BE ABLE TO SAVE JAPAN FROM ANOTHER BLACK MONDAY?
Many investors and traders aren’t enjoying this weekend after what happened on Friday following the US NFP release. The immediate market reaction was, as usual, positive, with trading algorithms flooding US futures with bids while dumping volatility hedging, simultaneously crushing the VIX almost vertically from ~22.3 to ~19. However, the…
THE US YIELD CURVE IS SCREAMING “DANGER!” AND ONCE AGAIN NOBODY IS LISTENING
The U.S. Treasury yield curve is one of the most important indicators in global financial markets, serving as a reflection of investors’ sentiment, economic outlook, and central bank policy. By plotting the yields of government bonds across different maturities, the yield curve provides insight into the direction of interest rates,…
NVIDIA WON’T CRASH MARKETS TOO MUCH BECAUSE TRADERS HAVE A BURNING HOUSE STILL STANDING WHERE THEY CAN HIDE
I bet very few noticed this: while NVIDIA and fellow bubbly tech stocks are having quite a hard time, banks, especially large ones, are actually showing remarkable strength in the 3rd quarter of 2024. Shocking, isn’t it? Back in February when I wrote “WE HAVE NO ALTERNATIVE BUT TO RIDE…
HOW THE US TREASURY HAS BEEN ACTIVELY CONTRIBUTING TO INFLATE THE STOCK BUBBLE, BUT NOW IS RUNNING OUT OF ROOM TO DO SO
So many people lately have been talking and writing a lot about the US Treasury “Buy Back” program officially started in May this year with the excuse of improving liquidity in the US Treasuries market (Debt buyback program set to improve liquidity, says US Treasury official). However, what many fail…
THE TWO KEY PRINCIPLES UPON WHICH CHINA IS REBOOTING ITS ECONOMY (AND THAT THE WEST DOESN’T UNDERSTAND)
I’ve spent over a decade living in Hong Kong, regularly traveling through Mainland China—except during the Covid-19 period, for obvious reasons. While many foreigners left, I stayed, immersing myself in the region’s culture and economy. This unique vantage point gives me direct access to life in China, unfiltered, while staying…
NVIDIA TRICK TO AVOID REGULATORS’ SCRUTINY: PAY MORE TAXES
Here we are with another episode of the NVIDIA saga when I thought we already brought to light all that was possible, but I was wrong. One important thing to highlight is that in its latest 10-Q NVIDIA did quite a good deal of “cleaning”. What am I referring to?…