Imagine a whole financial system (banks, insurances, and pension funds) that for decades never second-guessed the solvency and liquidity of its own country’s government bonds because no matter what, its central bank was always ready to show a bid in case there were no takers in the market. What I…
Category:Markets
STRAP ON FOLKS, BOND VIGILANTES ARE NOW IN THE DRIVING SEAT!
Back in August last year I wrote the article “IF THE FED CUTS RATES, THE DAMAGES WILL BE FAR GREATER THAN THE BENEFITS” to deliver the following warnings: “To all those who advocate rate cuts because those will benefit the economy, I dare to ask where exactly the economy will…
WHY BITCOIN ISN’T JUST A CRYPTOCURRENCY ANYMORE BUT MORE AND MORE AN ASSET ON ITS OWN
Back in September last year in “IS THIS BLACKROCK’S MASTER PLAN FOR BITCOIN?” I described how the investment powerhouse BlackRock was laying the ground to make Bitcoin the golden goose and growth engine for its operations in the near future, considering how mature all other asset classes within the manager’s…
SOFTBANK GOES ALL IN ON AI WITH THE LITTLE MONEY IT HAS LEFT
As I am writing this article, SoftBank Group shares are up ~5% after the release of the latest Full Year earnings results. We know that traders nowadays only follow headlines that are carefully crafted to always deliver the most bullish narrative and hardly spend any time digging into the numbers…
TARIFF WARS ARE OVER FOR NOW, BUT NEVERTHELESS THE INFLATION SPIRAL WILL CONTINUE
One month ago in the article “DEAR DONALD, THIS BATTLE IS LOST” this is what I suggested the US administration should have done to salvage the situation: “What should the US do now? Instead of borrowing a page from -The Art Of The Deal-, Donald Trump should consider reading Sun…
DRUMS OF WAR, KUMBAYA AND THE ART OF THE CONFUSION
The comparison between India’s and Pakistan’s stock markets perfectly illustrates the current state of financial markets, not only in the region but across the world. Let’s start with the smaller picture, where we find two nuclear-armed countries bombing each other this week, yet only one country’s stock market “noticed” while…
ARE WE 24 HOURS AWAY FROM A FED SURPRISE RATE CUT?
Right now, the futures market is pricing only a 2.7% probability of seeing the FED delivering a 25bp rate cut in the upcoming meeting. Considering the overall economic situation, my personal view is that the FED should be tightening financial conditions further, not the opposite. However, while US inflation remains…
HOW THE UBS TITANIC KEEPS FLOATING DESPITE THE HOLE IN ITS HULL
UBS just delivered another earnings expectations beat, what a surprise right? If it wasn’t for the Swiss regulator, who is aware of the bank’s real condition and doesn’t back off from asking UBS bank management to significantly increase their capital to prepare for potential significant losses (“Switzerland’s Finance Sheriff Takes…
HSBC Q1-25: AN EFFORT TO EAT ITS CAKE AND HAVE IT TOO
HSBC Q1-25 financial earnings have just been released and despite a 25% earnings drop compared to the previous year, the market couldn’t resist rewarding the bank, sending its shares higher (~2% at the moment) for announcing its first interim dividend of 2025 and, most importantly, for increasing its share buyback…
WITHOUT THE FED RESUMING QE, THE US WILL FACE A DEBT CRISIS VERY SOON
If foreign countries and companies are going to have less USD going forward, who is going to buy US debt? These past few days, I have been paying close attention to the narratives and dynamics developing around the tariffs war topic, but somehow nobody has brought attention to the crucial…