16 years have now passed since the GFC, the true last major financial markets crisis. Many people who started working at that time are now 35-40 years old and are at that stage of their lives when they start thinking about accumulating wealth for a comfortable retirement. Those who instead…
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THE US YIELD CURVE IS SCREAMING “DANGER!” AND ONCE AGAIN NOBODY IS LISTENING
The U.S. Treasury yield curve is one of the most important indicators in global financial markets, serving as a reflection of investors’ sentiment, economic outlook, and central bank policy. By plotting the yields of government bonds across different maturities, the yield curve provides insight into the direction of interest rates,…
THE TWO KEY PRINCIPLES UPON WHICH CHINA IS REBOOTING ITS ECONOMY (AND THAT THE WEST DOESN’T UNDERSTAND)
I’ve spent over a decade living in Hong Kong, regularly traveling through Mainland China—except during the Covid-19 period, for obvious reasons. While many foreigners left, I stayed, immersing myself in the region’s culture and economy. This unique vantage point gives me direct access to life in China, unfiltered, while staying…
“HYPERSCALERS” OR “HYPERCHEATERS”? – ADDING HINDENBURG PIECE TO THE BIG PONZI PUZZLE WE HAVE BEEN PUTTING TOGETHER TILL NOW WHILE WAITING FOR NVIDIA EARNINGS
As as soon as Hindenburg Research’s (a famous short-selling hedge fund) piece “Super Micro: Fresh Evidence Of Accounting Manipulation, Sibling Self-Dealing And Sanctions Evasion At This AI High Flyer” was published I started to be flooded with notifications about it and when I picked up my phone, I have to…
IF THE FED CUTS RATES, THE DAMAGES WILL BE FAR GREATER THAN THE BENEFITS
Two weeks ago, traders assigned a 60% probability to a FED emergency rate cut, potentially up to 75 basis points. Let me stress this point: an emergency rate cut isn’t an ordinary one. What was the “emergency” that required such a swift and powerful action from the FED two weeks…
FINANCIAL MARKETS REACHED A “SINGULARITY” NO ONE WANTS TO DEAL WITH
Last week I wrote the provocative, but substantiated, “THIS IS NOT 1987, 2000, 2008 OR 2020, BUT A WHOLE NEW MARKET MONSTER” with the main goal of bringing to everyone’s attention how the current financial market is presented with many “unknown unknowns.” Today it’s worth looking a little deeper in…
DID A CREDIT EVENT TRIGGER ON MONDAY? THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE TO KNOW THE ANSWER IN THE FOLLOWING HOURS
I wonder why not many people are currently asking themselves a very simple question: “Who lost money in #Japan’s stock market crash between Friday and Monday?” One very peculiar thing about the 1987 crash is that many brokerages went bust. So how is it possible that Japan suffered a stock…
THIS IS NOT 1987, 2000, 2008 OR 2020, BUT A WHOLE NEW MARKET MONSTER
These days there are a lot of comparisons being made with what happened in previous financial crises that unfolded after times of irrational exuberance and reckless monetary policy, but many are failing to grasp how the current situation is hardly comparable to what happened in the past for many reasons….
IN JAPAN IT WILL BE A MESSY MONDAY, BUT NOT A BLACK ONE (YET)
When you go from “Japan’s Nikkei average closes at all-time high, breaks March record” to “Japan stocks take largest dive since Black Monday of 1987” in the span of a month, it already creates the type of roundtrip that leaves everyone pretty dizzy. The problem is the trip is far…
A TRAVELER GUIDE TO NAVIGATE THE BANK OF JAPAN MESS
First of all, let’s do a quick recap of how we got here: At this point, something very important happens. On the 30th of July, right after US stocks opened for cash trading, someone very big was clearly being margin called and liquidated as I warned in this post here…