Crossing a specific FX level isn’t usually a “big deal”. What would be the difference for a country between settling payments at 151.95 or 152.05? Intuitively, it’s quite small. However, there are 2 specific markets where a “round number” can be a very big deal: derivatives and margin lending. Why?…
Month: March 2024
A LESSON FROM #CHINA’S MIDDLE CLASS: PAY YOUR DEBTS UNTIL YOU CAN AFFORD TO DO SO. THE ALTERNATIVE? DEBT SLAVERY
There are times when I believe that if there wasn’t a massive cultural and language barrier between #China and the major Western countries, in particular with the #US (while #Germany would love to deal more with #China commercially if they still had the option to do so), both parts of…
CAREFUL ABOUT RECEDING TIDES, A TSUNAMI MIGHT BE ABOUT TO HIT (#STOCKS)
On Monday, the overall volume traded on the S&P500 was about 50% of the average daily volumes of the past 3 months. What about the Nasdaq100? Incredibly, the volume traded on the index on Monday was ~14% of the average traded volume of the past 3 months. Let’s look a…
IS #CHINA ABOUT TO HIT #US WHERE IT WILL HURT THE MOST?
Since last Thursday, a strange tension could be sensed on trading floors in Hong Kong and China, then on Friday, the $CNY suddenly sold off against the $USD. While the event has been greatly overlooked so far by investors, it might have been a pretty loud warning about the next…
WHY A HISTORICAL $JPY CURRENCY CRISIS IS AT THE DOORSTEP OF #JAPAN
Imagine you hold an asset of any type. At the moment, the asset XYZ is worth 1M$ according to the price quoted on the exchange. Now, what would be your instinctive reaction if you suddenly discovered that your asset XYZ is instead worth 100k$, but you can still go to…
THE NEW #FOMC MANDATE IS NOW OFFICIAL: SAVE THE #STOCKS BUBBLE AT ALL COSTS!
Let’s give a round of applause to Jerome Burns (aka Jerome Powell) for his incredible confidence in saying things like “#inflation is showing some seasonality that doesn’t change its downward trend”. First of all, can someone remind him that what he has been commenting on in the last 6 years…
“Oops!… I did it again!” – #BOJ DANGEROUS SCHIZOPHRENIA
The Bank Of Japan (#BOJ) attempted to have its cake and eat it too, again, but this time, they didn’t have the luxury to do so anymore. The #BOJ had to decide which one to save between Japan’s economy and the global #stocks bubble, as we discussed last week (article…
THE WORLD ECONOMY DESPERATELY NEEDS A NEW PAUL VOLCKER
I believe we now all agree the #inflation genie, or perhaps “devil,” is back with a vengeance. Who could have foreseen that? Well… I did 3 months ago ( “The Real Fight Against #Inlfation Has Not Even Started Yet” ), but most people were too busy getting drunk on the…
ARE WE GOING TO SEE THE #FED FIREFIGHTING A #BOJ HIKE THIS WEEK?
This week we are going to have such a parade of central bank decisions on the menu: #RBA, #BOJ, #FOMC, #BOE, and #SNB 😵💫 All eyes will surely be on the #BOJ and the #FOMC. I do expect they will play “good cop bad cop” with market emotions. 🤭 The…
INSURANCES AND BANKS RISK A #BOEING FINANCIAL NIGHTMARE
Before COVID-19 appeared it was very hard to imagine most of the globe being put under lockdown restrictions that differed in type and tightness country by country right? The last instance the world experienced something similar in terms of mortality, lockdowns, quarantines, and consequent economic disruptions created by all those…