It’s been some time since I first rang the alarm bell about the crisis unfolding in the Commercial Real Estate sector (#CRE) in the US. Banks’ risk departments were largely ignoring this crisis, an issue I highlighted in my previous post, ”The great paradox of CRE lending: while owners are…
Category:Banks
IS THIS HOW BANKS ARE CONCEALING THEIR LOSSES ON SILVER SHORT POSITIONS?
Silver is garnering attention lately, with its price movements suggesting the onset of a short squeeze. Silver is no stranger to dramatic short squeezes. The most notorious silver short squeeze took place in the late 1970s and early 1980s, executed by Nelson Bunker Hunt and William Herbert Hunt. These sons…
BECAUSE FOREIGN INVESTORS CANNOT KEEP PACE WITH THE US BALLOONING DEBT, WHY, WITHOUT #FED QE, JANET YELLEN ONLY ALTERNATIVE IS TO FORCE US PEOPLE TO BUY US TREASURIES.
Yesterday, the news that #China PBOC sold its largest amount of US Treasury reserves ever was not a shock. It was expected to happen sooner or later considering the state of the relationship between the two countries lately. Nevertheless, it was big news. At this point, I started to dig…
UBS Q1-24 RESULTS REVIEW – THE “LA LA LAND” BANK
“UBS swings back to profit and smashes earnings expectations for the first quarter”, was the CNBC headline shortly after #UBS Q1-24 results announcement. But what about all other MSM? Everyone, of course, is jumping on the same celebratory bandwagon. I wonder how many of these people influencing markets and sentiment…
IS HSBC CEO “UNEXPECTEDLY” LEAVING BECAUSE THE BANK WON’T BE ABLE TO HIDE ITS PROBLEMS FOR MUCH LONGER?
Did anyone expect HSBC CEO Noel Quinn to step down yesterday? Clearly not: However, a 3 billion$ buyback plus a 21c special dividend announcement sweetened the bitter pill of the CEO’s resignation so much that the investors’ sugar-high reaction was quite remarkable, with the stock closing up 4% and now…
EVERYONE IN UBS IS LOOKING FOR A LIFEBOAT TO ESCAPE THE SINKING TITANIC
As I warned about many times before (#UBS ENCORE SERIES), the rescue of Credit Suisse was surely going to put #UBS in great danger and, as expected, the bank is now going through an existential crisis. The extent of the existential crisis was already clear in their Q4-23 results, where…
DOES ANYBODY CARE ABOUT THE UNFOLDING BANKING CRISIS ANYMORE?
Since last week, while the market was distracted by the geopolitical slapping contest between Israel and Iran, both large banks (#KBE) and regional banks (#KRE) lost 5%, outpacing the S&P500 by more than 2%. JP Morgan, surprisingly, is leading the tumble, down almost 8% since releasing its Q1-24 results. Bank…
GET READY, INSIDERS TOLD ME A HORRIBLE BANKS’ EARNINGS SEASON IS ABOUT TO BEGIN
JP Morgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and State Street will all kick off Q1-24 banks’ earnings season on Friday (or today for those of us based in Asia like me) before US #stocks cash trading opens. As I mentioned in my article earlier this week (link), for Q1-24 banks are already…
NOW THAT THE JAPAN MAGIC MONEY TREE IS DEAD, EXPECT BANKS TO JUMP AT EACH OTHER’S THROATS
The answer to any problem Japan faced in the past 3 decades was “let’s just print our way out of it” and every time the global financial system was more than happy to swallow every drop of freshly printed #JPY. What were banks doing with all that money that “magically”…
STOCKS’ PURSUIT OF HAPPINESS: IGNORE EVERYTHING, EVEN THE BASIC LAWS OF FINANCIAL GRAVITY
The discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation model is a fundamental tool used in finance to estimate the intrinsic value of a company based on its expected future cash flows. It is based on the “time value of money” — the basic law of finance (a dollar received in the future…