There is a scenario every trader fears: when your screens go dark. In that situation, the only way to understand where the market is trading is to start making phone calls to your trading partners. To a certain extent, this event already happened during Thanksgiving night when CME servers stopped…
Category:Macro
CENTRAL BANKS ARE DRIVING WHILE LOOKING IN THE REARVIEW MIRROR
The market is currently betting heavily on the FOMC delivering another rate cut in December, and considering the real goal of the Fed and fellow central bankers has been to “assure financial market stability”, not control inflation, assure healthy and homogeneous economic growth, or maintain a resilient job market, it…
WHY SILVER CAN HIT $100 BY MARCH
In the past few days, several people reached out to me asking me to write an article about silver, but initially, I thought I would not have much to add to what I wrote back in June, yes, over 5 months ago, in “THAT SMELL OF SILVER SQUEEZE IN THE…
TRUMP’S DILEMMA: TO BAILOUT OR NOT TO BAILOUT THE AI BUBBLE
If you think that right now, with all that’s happening in markets, there are no ongoing discussions behind closed doors of the US administration offices as to whether or not to publicly support the (reckless) AI hyperscalers, then I suggest it’s time to stop living under a rock and see…
DON’T WORRY, IT’S NOT TOO LATE TO RESCUE THE STOCK BUBBLE
There is one rule that is very powerful and tends to work very well in all situations where it’s suitable to use it: “follow the money”. In our case, this rule applies to the amounts of money central banks handed to traders who then fueled the stock market bubble to…
PRIVATE CREDIT: PEOPLE CAN SMELL THE SMOKE, BUT CANNOT SPOT THE FIRE YET
Alright, let’s dive into something that’s been making big headlines lately: private credit. Think of it as loans handed out by folks who aren’t your typical bank—private equity firms, hedge funds, or specialized finance companies stepping in to lend to businesses, real estate projects, or individuals who might not qualify…
WILL SANAE TAKAICHI LAST LONGER THAN A HEAD OF LETTUCE?
The surprise victory of Sanae Takaichi as the new leader of the Japan LDP, which will allow her to become the next Prime Minister of Japan, has been welcomed by stock traders with such a loud cheer of joy that overheated Japan stocks marked one of the biggest daily jumps…
NO ONE WILL CARE ABOUT A US SHUTDOWN, UNLESS IT SPARKS A BANK RUN
The United States is teetering on the edge of its 22nd federal government shutdown since 1976. While markets are dismissive—assuming, as in the past, that “nothing is going to happen”—this is more than just domestic political theater. If not resolved quickly, this shutdown could become a severe stress test for…
THE GLOBAL DEBT CRISIS: WHY GOLD KEEPS SHINING WHILE DEBT AND CURRENCIES CRASH
Everyone is now watching long-term government bond yields going through the roof, from Japan to the UK, from France to the US. A few months ago, Wall Street’s analysts’ expectations, along with those of many other “experts” (that I am not sure how they can be defined as such, considering…
WHY, INSTEAD OF FIXING US PROBLEMS, FED RATE CUTS WILL WORSEN THEM
Exactly one year ago, a parade of “experts” was making the rounds on various popular TV networks advocating for a 75 basis point emergency FED rate cut to troubleshoot the crisis in the global JPY carry trade scheme. At that time, traders in the futures market priced a 60% probability…