Everyone is now watching long-term government bond yields going through the roof, from Japan to the UK, from France to the US. A few months ago, Wall Street’s analysts’ expectations, along with those of many other “experts” (that I am not sure how they can be defined as such, considering…
Category:Macro
WHY, INSTEAD OF FIXING US PROBLEMS, FED RATE CUTS WILL WORSEN THEM
Exactly one year ago, a parade of “experts” was making the rounds on various popular TV networks advocating for a 75 basis point emergency FED rate cut to troubleshoot the crisis in the global JPY carry trade scheme. At that time, traders in the futures market priced a 60% probability…
PLAYING WITH FIRE: TRUMP DANGEROUS PUSH FOR LOWER INTEREST RATES
There is no day now when we do not hear from either Lutnick, Bessent, or Trump himself a verbal broadside towards the Federal Reserve, where, let’s not forget, Donald Trump himself nominated the chairman. Why so much beef against Jerome “Burns” Powell? According to them, the FED should be cutting…
HOW TURKEY ENGINEERED ITS OWN ECONOMIC COLLAPSE AND WHY JAPAN AND UK ARE FOLLOWING ON THE SAME FOOTSTEPS
The Turkish Lesson Turkey’s economic collapse didn’t happen by accident—it was the result of deliberate policy choices that ignored economic fundamentals in favor of political doctrine. For years, President Erdoğan pursued a radical economic experiment that became known as “Erdoganomics”. This strategy was built on the belief that high interest…
LIQUIDITY CRACKS WIDEN IN THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL HOUSE OF CARDS
Almost 10 months ago, I wrote the article “MOUNTING SIGNS OF LIQUIDITY PROBLEMS AMONG LARGE US AND UK BANKS” to highlight several elements pointing toward a buildup of liquidity problems in the banking sector. Three elements were particularly noteworthy at the time: Last week, something very interesting happened again: banks…
2025 FED STRESS TEST REVEALS HOW TODAY’S FED IS COMPLICIT IN HIDING BANKS’ PROBLEMS
The Federal Reserve just released the results of its 2025 round of stress testing on 22 major US banks, and personally, I have never come across something more ridiculous and hypocritical. Let’s start with the fact that the FED itself admits how it found it appropriate to make this year’s…
TARIFF WARS: THE RETURN OF THE DONALD JEDI
More than 2 months ago in “TARIFF WARS: A NEW HOPE” and “TARIFF WARS: THE EMPIRE STRIKES BACK” I correctly made sense of the overall tariffs mess at the time, but I made a mistake too: I overestimated President Trump’s commitment to do the right thing in the interest of…
THAT SMELL OF SILVER SQUEEZE IN THE AIR
More than one year ago in the article “IS THIS HOW BANKS ARE CONCEALING THEIR LOSSES ON SILVER SHORT POSITIONS?” I first tried to bring attention to several anomalies happening in the Silver market that could only be explained by active price manipulation activities on LBMA and COMEX contracts. Why…
IS THIS A MINSKY MOMENT FOR US TREASURIES?
Something special happened today, or to be precise, did not happen. As Israel started its new military campaign against Iran, all risk assets in financial markets started to dive, from stock futures to crypto. Understandably, oil prices started to spike in what can potentially become a “VAR shock” event if…
CRYPTO WEB3: A BUSTED BUBBLE OR AN EPIC ONE ABOUT TO BEGIN?
Altcoin season refers to a period in the cryptocurrency market when alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins), any digital assets besides Bitcoin, significantly outperform Bitcoin in price appreciation and trading volume. This phase is characterized by a surge in capital flowing from Bitcoin into altcoins, leading to rapid, often exponential, gains across a…