Yesterday, I watched the opening of #US #stocks trading in literal disbelief as investors stampeded into $NYCB, sending the stock up 15% at some point. The scene reminded me of the movie “Independence Day”, one of my favorites, when you see people dancing on top of buildings right below the…
Category:Macro
WHAT CAN SAVE #STOCKS FROM A HISTORICAL IMPLOSION ONCE AGAIN?
It’s no mystery anymore. What matters to low-popularity politicians in charge of government and seeking reelection is a #bullish #stockmarket until after the election date. From #Japan to the #US, from the #UK to #Germany, what do all of them have in common? The government in charge is dealing with…
JAPAN END GAME – A DEEPLY DEVALUED $JPY AND A WORTHLESS #NIKKEI
The #Nikkei just broke 40,000 and yet no one in #Japan is celebrating, literally speaking. Why? The purchasing power of $JPY literally fell through the floor in the past 30 years as a result of endless (and reckless) nonstop money printing. As I wrote almost 5 months ago on X:…
HOW CAN THE #FED BAILOUT BANKS WHEN THIS TIME IT NEEDS A BAILOUT ITSELF TO BEGIN WITH?
Even if blessed with superpowers, in particular, the one of printing infinite money, the Federal Reserve is ultimately a “Bank” and like every superhero has a weak spot like Kryptonite for Superman. Being a “Bank”, hence required to remain solvent, is paradoxically the #FED’s weakness. Let me explain: 1 –…
“WE HAVE NO ALTERNATIVE BUT TO RIDE STOCKS UNTIL THEY RUN”
Yesterday, I spent the evening with a good old friend, now a senior manager in a big financial firm, whom I will label as “Manager X” going forward. I believe some parts of our conversation will be interesting to everyone, my summary below 🙏🏻 1 – Why is there no…
THE PILE OF LIES USED TO RAISE THIS #STOCKS BULL MARKET UP TO THE SKY IS NOT WITHSTANDING GRAVITY ANYMORE
From $NVDA to Janet Yellen, from $AAPL to Jerome Powell, from $SMCI to Gary Gensler, from Joe Biden to the #BLS, from Rishi Sunak to $HSBC, from Christine Lagarde to #GermanRealEstate, from the #BOJ to $GOOG and on and on. What do all those I mentioned have in common? They…
WHY ALL OF A SUDDEN ARE SO MANY HIGH PROFILE INSIDERS SELLING THEIR #STOCKS?
Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Jamie Dimon, the Walton family, $AMD CEO Lisa Su are just some of the high profile insiders that have been selling big chunks of their #stocks in recent weeks. If you take a snapshot of insider volumes in the last 60 days (chart 1 – credit…
THE GREAT PARADOX – BECAUSE OF DECADES OF RECKLESS QE, CENTRAL BANKS SHOULD HIKE RATES TO SAVE THE *REAL* ECONOMY NOT THE OPPOSITE
How many people have you read about or heard from lately who told you things like “hey, I am taking my savings and investing in this restaurant” or “I am so good at my job I quit and set up my own shop”? I bet very few. Indeed, new business…
CHINA STOCKS – IS THE BOTTOM IN?
Last week, the #HongKong HSI index was up 5.5% despite only having 3 trading days due to the Chinese New Year holidays. #China index futures were also up ~3% in the same timeframe. Trading is about to resume in mainland #China along with all the country’s business activity after the…
THE INCOMING GERMAN REAL ESTATE MAYHEM
As you know, I have been investigating US real estate, especially #CRE, since early last year (JustDario). Nowadays, the ginormous bubble popping up while #stocks keep hitting new ATH records is not a secret anymore. Surprisingly, despite the banking crisis that started in January 2023 and was never solved (the…