Let’s give a round of applause to Jerome Burns (aka Jerome Powell) for his incredible confidence in saying things like “#inflation is showing some seasonality that doesn’t change its downward trend”.
First of all, can someone remind him that what he has been commenting on in the last 6 years is “seasonally adjusted” data? That means data that are supposed to smoothen out any seasonal distortion. Furthermore, when the standard adjustments weren’t enough we got the “political adjustments” to make sure no bad data would be allowed to surface, especially ahead of elections.
Secondly, can someone show this chart to Jerome Burns? Isn’t it pretty obvious that #inflation is now trending upward again (like it did in the 70’s)?
When I saw the new #FOMC statement, I couldn’t believe my eyes, it’s 99.9% identical to the previous one. The only thing they amended? The only sentence that made the Joe Biden administration look pretty bad last time.
I wonder if anyone ever saw this chart below at the #FED, it’s pretty obvious the job market is “strong” because of foreign immigrants taking jobs in the US and, paradoxically, not US people.
What happens when even despite foreign immigration the job numbers still don’t look good enough for a cheerful MSM headline? The “political adjustment” comes to help goose the numbers and then, when people aren’t paying attention anymore, the data are amended to the lower read where they were supposed to be since the beginning.
At this point, it’s pretty obvious that the #FED isn’t taking its original mandate seriously anymore, all that matters today for the “politically independent” central banks is to please the politicians in charge. Why? I’m not sure any bank or hedge fund will be willing to hire former #FED officials as consultants, or even board members, and pay them to deal with politicians they didn’t remain on good terms with.
What do politicians care the most about right now? To make sure the mother of all #stocks bubble doesn’t implode. Why? Because if even that implodes like the real economy did then whoever is in charge surely won’t have any hope to be re-elected since a big chunk of the voters will see the (nominal) value of their pensions collapsing too and all they will be left with will be high #inflation and #debts impossible to survive with.
Beware, #stocks aren’t the only asset class out there and I’d strongly suggest considering alternatives to protect your financial future because if it’s become so obvious that Central Banks are not anymore the lenders of last resort but the #stocks cheerleaders of last resort, the situation behind closed doors is likely more desperate than what it appears to the public.