Despite the #BOJ panic intervention as soon as the #JPY broke 160 against the #USD, and a US Treasury QRA (Quarterly Refinancing Announcement) that has been disclosed for an amount higher than expected, the longer end part of the US government bonds yield curve did not bother to move that…
Month: April 2024
EXPLAINING AND SIMPLIFYING THE JPY (COUNTERINTUITIVE) “DOOM LOOP”
Last week, I ventured a bit too deeply into the plumbing of the global financial system with the article “THE JPY (COUNTERINTUITIVE) DOOM LOOP – THE MORE JPY LOSES VALUE, THE MORE LEVERAGE IS FORCED TO COME OFFLINE, THE MORE THE JPY LOSES VALUE” and I apologize to all those…
STOP DREAMING – THE US ECONOMY HAS BEEN IN A RECESSION SINCE Q2 2021!
Every time I look at a new release of public, politically, seasonally adjusted data, I struggle not to smile (often, not to laugh lately). Things must be so bad this time that 7 months away from US elections, despite adjustments beyond the limits of human creativity, we’re getting this type…
EVERYONE IN UBS IS LOOKING FOR A LIFEBOAT TO ESCAPE THE SINKING TITANIC
As I warned about many times before (#UBS ENCORE SERIES), the rescue of Credit Suisse was surely going to put #UBS in great danger and, as expected, the bank is now going through an existential crisis. The extent of the existential crisis was already clear in their Q4-23 results, where…
THE JPY (COUNTERINTUITIVE) DOOM LOOP – THE MORE JPY LOSES VALUE, THE MORE LEVERAGE IS FORCED TO COME OFFLINE, THE MORE THE JPY LOSES VALUE
Almost 9 months ago now in the post “$JPY CARRY TRADE – THE BIGGEST FINANCIAL TICKING TIME BOMB OF ALL?“, I tried to explain how, in the current market conditions where the shortage of quality collateral assets is becoming incredibly scarce, a depreciating #JPY would have put the ginormous and…
THE NEXT CRYPTO ALTCOINS SEASON WILL BE A SPECTACULAR DISPLAY OF FOMO
All the talk about #crypto as of late has been mostly around #Bitcoin and the #Bitcoin ETF that, like it or not, has been the most successful ETF launch ever. A while ago, I explained what the #Bitcoin ETF meant for the whole #crypto industry (“WHY A BITCOIN ETF WILL…
IF ARCHEGOS BUSTED CREDIT SUISSE, WHICH BANK WILL A SOFTBANK IMPLOSION SINK?
Last Friday, #ARM closed the day at $87.19, down by 16.90% in one session. The stock overall lost 31.10% last week or $40bn in market cap. Why is this a big deal? Because #Softbank holds ~90% of #ARM and has been manipulating this stock on the upside since an IPO…
WHITE COLLAR JOBS MASS UNEMPLOYMENT IS INEXORABLY AHEAD OF US WITH BRUTAL ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES
During the last three days in Dubai, I had the opportunity to talk with a lot of people, the vast majority of them working to develop new AI tools and businesses. The more I heard about what all of them are busy with, the more I grew concerned for the…
DOES ANYBODY CARE ABOUT THE UNFOLDING BANKING CRISIS ANYMORE?
Since last week, while the market was distracted by the geopolitical slapping contest between Israel and Iran, both large banks (#KBE) and regional banks (#KRE) lost 5%, outpacing the S&P500 by more than 2%. JP Morgan, surprisingly, is leading the tumble, down almost 8% since releasing its Q1-24 results. Bank…
GOLDMAN SACHS CASH BLEED WON’T ALLOW THEM TO KEEP HIDING THEIR LOSSES FOREVER
Goldman Sachs just released its Q1-24 results and, of course, they beat expectations. Nothing less could be expected from the “best in its league” right? Well, if you pay attention to details, #GS financials are less and less shiny (and increasingly worth paying attention to). Once again, #GS cherry-picked the…