Imagine a whole financial system (banks, insurances, and pension funds) that for decades never second-guessed the solvency and liquidity of its own country’s government bonds because no matter what, its central bank was always ready to show a bid in case there were no takers in the market. What I…
Category:Japan
STRAP ON FOLKS, BOND VIGILANTES ARE NOW IN THE DRIVING SEAT!
Back in August last year I wrote the article “IF THE FED CUTS RATES, THE DAMAGES WILL BE FAR GREATER THAN THE BENEFITS” to deliver the following warnings: “To all those who advocate rate cuts because those will benefit the economy, I dare to ask where exactly the economy will…
SOFTBANK GOES ALL IN ON AI WITH THE LITTLE MONEY IT HAS LEFT
As I am writing this article, SoftBank Group shares are up ~5% after the release of the latest Full Year earnings results. We know that traders nowadays only follow headlines that are carefully crafted to always deliver the most bullish narrative and hardly spend any time digging into the numbers…
NORINCHUKIN BANK IMPLOSION OFFICIALLY BEGINS
“Is it possible for a bank to continue operating while being insolvent? The answer is yes, and Norinchukin Bank is the best example of it at the moment”. This was how I started my last article on Norinchukin Bank 3 months ago. This is why yesterday I wasn’t surprised at…
HOW SOFTBANK IS FIGHTING BANKRUPTCY
Three months ago, right after SoftBank’s quarterly results for the three months ended in September 2024, I wrote “SOFTBANK IS RUNNING OUT OF CASH, BUT NO WORRIES NVIDIA IS TRYING TO RESCUE IT,” highlighting how Masaponzi Son’s company continues to burn significant amounts of cash. However, a timely announcement of…
HOW IS SCOTT BESSENT GOING TO DEAL WITH THE BANK OF JAPAN?
The next BOJ policy rate decision is approaching and, of course, much speculation surrounds it. I will not join the crowd because regardless of what happens next, it won’t change Japan’s fate in the medium to long term, as I have already discussed in these articles: The BOJ decision will…
HOW LONG WILL THE MARKET IGNORE NORINCHUKIN BANK INSOLVENCY?
Is it possible for a bank to continue operating while being insolvent? The answer is yes, and Norinchukin Bank is the best example of it at the moment. I started to follow Norinchukin closely a long time ago (article) and the reason why I continue is because this little-known bank…
SOFTBANK IS RUNNING OUT OF CASH, BUT NO WORRIES NVIDIA IS TRYING TO RESCUE IT
As I was finishing up drafting this article, a “breaking news” pops up: “SoftBank to get first NVIDIA chips for Japan super computer”. How timely, right? SoftBank just released its quarterly financial statements that leave not much room for doubt: SoftBank group only has cash to stay in business for…
MARKET EUPHORIA VS. ECONOMIC REALITY: GLOBAL STOCKS SOAR AS CRACKS DEEPEN BENEATH
To be completely honest, when I saw what happened today in the first minutes of trading in the Japanese stock market, my jaw dropped to the floor. I could not believe my eyes, literally. The outcome of Japan’s elections has been quite bad, with the government in charge effectively now…
JAPAN ISN’T ALLOWED TO IMPLODE BEFORE US ELECTIONS, BUT NOT EVERYTHING IS UNDER CONTROL AND THE CHANCES FOR A REAL BLACK MONDAY TO SPARK ARE NOT THAT LOW
Last Friday, a few minutes after the Tokyo stock exchange closed for the week, news about Shigeru Ishiba winning the LDP party leadership elections, making him virtually the next Prime Minister, jolted Japan’s futures and FX markets. Why did Japan stock futures crash more than 7% after the news? Because…