Since last week, while the market was distracted by the geopolitical slapping contest between Israel and Iran, both large banks (#KBE) and regional banks (#KRE) lost 5%, outpacing the S&P500 by more than 2%. JP Morgan, surprisingly, is leading the tumble, down almost 8% since releasing its Q1-24 results. Bank…
Tag:#BTFP
ARE WE GOING TO SEE THE #FED FIREFIGHTING A #BOJ HIKE THIS WEEK?
This week we are going to have such a parade of central bank decisions on the menu: #RBA, #BOJ, #FOMC, #BOE, and #SNB 😵💫 All eyes will surely be on the #BOJ and the #FOMC. I do expect they will play “good cop bad cop” with market emotions. 🤭 The…
IS THE #FED (PERHAPS WILLINGLY) STARTING A BANKING CRISIS TODAY?
In about 24 hours, the “Bank Term Funding Programme”, the infamous #BTFP, will be history. There should not have been any surprise about this if it wasn’t for the fact the banking situation today is much worse than it was one year ago when the #BTFP was launched. How dire…
WHAT CAN SAVE #STOCKS FROM A HISTORICAL IMPLOSION ONCE AGAIN?
It’s no mystery anymore. What matters to low-popularity politicians in charge of government and seeking reelection is a #bullish #stockmarket until after the election date. From #Japan to the #US, from the #UK to #Germany, what do all of them have in common? The government in charge is dealing with…
THE INCOMING GERMAN REAL ESTATE MAYHEM
As you know, I have been investigating US real estate, especially #CRE, since early last year (JustDario). Nowadays, the ginormous bubble popping up while #stocks keep hitting new ATH records is not a secret anymore. Surprisingly, despite the banking crisis that started in January 2023 and was never solved (the…
THE (FAKE) NARRATIVE THAT FUELED THE BREAKNECK #STOCKS RALLY SINCE LAST OCTOBER JUST CRUMBLED – WHAT HAPPENS NOW?
To anyone who lives in the real world, it has always been clear that #inflation wasn’t truly cooling down as the official (politically adjusted) CPI data pretended to portray (TwitterX). If you want to have a live snapshot of the distorted reality “economists” see from the high rise ivory towers…
IS $NYCB THE CANARY IN THE $UBS COAL MINE?
Sorry, folks, but after our beloved Jerome Burns’s performance at the last #FOMC, 2 things are clear: 🚩 The #FED knows they’ve screwed up the fight against #inflation and it’s going to flare back up to a point where (political) adjustment won’t be able to hide what’s obvious in the…
DEAR JEROME BURNS, TODAY YOU MUST TELL THE WORLD WHAT COMES AFTER THE #BTFP…
During the last session, investors piled into financial #stocks with $XLF up 1.26%, and several major banks had a good green day ahead of the next #FOMC. Since October, $XLF is up 24% despite banks’ books starting to have more holes than Emmental cheese 🧀 (and some even starting to…
FEBRUARY 2020 ALL OVER AGAIN?
In 2020, stock markets in the #US and #Europe peaked on the 19th of February, while #China and #HongKong ones peaked exactly one month prior, on the 20th of January. In a great twist of destiny, on the 21st of February this year, $NVDA is scheduled to report its Q4-23…
WITHOUT THE FED BTFP, BANKS WILL NOW HAVE A HARDER TIME TO “HIDE TILL MATURITY” THEIR LOSSES
I started the year writing about how in 2024 the practice used by banks of hiding their losses in Hold to Maturity books (hence “hide till maturity”) would have come to an end [Post Below]. However, I was wrong there, because I wrote this: “As I explained in a post…