Something very interesting has been happening for the past several weeks: while stock traders and investors’ sentiment is beyond euphoric, bond traders and investors are freaking out. Please take a look at this chart that includes the 10-year government bond yields of major countries and the VIX. I believe some…
Category:Inflation
WHY YOU CANNOT SHORT THIS MARKET, EVEN WITH THE MIDDLE EAST ON FIRE
I don’t know whether, by the time I publish this article, anything I say will still be relevant given the current circumstances, but I hope most of the information will still be useful. Let me start with gold and silver, whose long-term fundamentals are strengthening every day, but which, in…
WHY WHO’S F/AROUND IN THE OIL FUTURES MARKET MIGHT FIND OUT IN 7 DAYS
At 10:00 am EST on April 13, the US Navy officially began a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz (”Trump says Iranian ships to be ‘eliminated’ as US naval blockade begins”), turning the world’s most important oil chokepoint into the epicenter of a fresh pricing shock. In theory, at least….
SAVE PRIVATE TAKAICHI: HOW JAPAN’S YEN CRISIS IS BEING IGNORED
Almost 2 years ago, I wrote a research piece that, at that time, left many in utter disbelief: “A PEEK INTO THE FUTURE: USD/JPY ROAD TO 300.” In that piece, I calculated what should have been the JPY fair exchange rate against the USD at that time based on the…
OIL WILL DECIDE WHEN GOLD AND SILVER BOTTOMED
This week started with a “Bang!”, but I am not referring to the sound of bomb or rocket strikes somewhere in the Middle East, but to President Trump’s post that jolted global markets about 2 hours before US cash trading began on Monday. There is plenty of commentary out there…
THE INCOMING SHOCK IS GOING TO BE WORSE THAN THE COVID ONE
It has been more than 2 weeks now since the war against Iran started, and so far, nothing has gone as planned. Literally nothing. Iran’s counteroffensive capabilities have been underestimated. Its willingness to cause severe damage to its enemies and allies economies was ignored. The overall impact on the global…
WHY IS COMMODITY PRICES MANIPULATION A GIFT TO PATIENT INVESTORS
Tuesday, the 10th of March 2026, will likely enter the history books as the date when state-sponsored market manipulation became official. Yesterday, around 11:20 AM EST, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced with a post on X how the US Navy successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of…
MY STUPID STRATEGY FOR WARTIMES INVESTING
In the past 72 hours, traffic on social media was through the roof, especially on X, but another thing was off the charts: the amount of nonsense being spread left and right with the sole purpose of farming engagement. Am I an expert on Iran? No, I am not, and…
JEROME POWELL’S POINTLESS FIGHT FOR HIS LEGACY
Those who have been reading my analysis on the FED and its policies for the past years know that, long ago, I nicknamed Jerome Powell “Jerome Burns”. Why? While leading the Federal Reserve in vastly different economic eras, Jerome Powell and Arthur Burns share significant similarities in their analytical framework…
BEYOND THE NIKKEI HIGHS: THE $ 1.9 TRILLION SOLVENCY CRISIS CRIPPLING JAPAN
Almost 6 months ago, I asked this question: “HOW LONG WILL THE BOJ BE ABLE TO AVOID THE COLLAPSE OF A MAJOR FINANCIAL INSTITUTION?” Surely, the central bank of Japan has done a remarkable job so far in keeping big insolvent Japanese financial institutions afloat. However, the constant flow of…